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Yuki,
I keep this "...and I'm quickly losing my enthusiasm for the long
side of this market."
I hope you enjoy the weekend+Monday.
Dimitris
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Yuki Taga <yukitaga@xxxx> wrote:
> Hi DIMITRIS,
>
> Saturday, November 20, 2004, 5:36:00 AM, you wrote:
>
> DT> How about the ^N225 open on Monday ? [technical or non technical
> DT> opinions will be appreciated...] Dimitris
>
> Has to be ugly, and I'm quickly losing my enthusiasm for the long
> side of this market. Do you want a number? ^^_^^ Okay. The 225
> will open at 10,988.13. It may close there as well. ^_^
>
> I see the dollar @ 103.1 on this fine Saturday morning in the Big
> Mikan. So, exporters are not going to be too happy about this.
>
> What has kept the market alive this year (and contributed greatly to
> it last year as well) is the so-called "domestic demand" stocks.
> These are services (like banks), real estate companies, etc., that
do
> not (in theory anyway) rely on exchange rates or exports for their
> earnings.
>
> You can see what has happened, too, as investors have grabbed this
> idea and run with it. Since the low in the spring of '03, major
> banks are up several hundred percent (and institutions were pouring
a
> river of money into them yet this week, until Friday, when they
> didn't show up). Real estate companies have tripled or quadrupled.
> Electronics, semiconductors, etc., are lucky if they have doubled.
> Some did double and almost triple on the initial surge last year,
but
> they have given a lot back. NEC, for example, ran from 350 to 1000,
> but is now back below 600 and dead in the water at the moment.
>
> But the "domestic demand" story only works (IMO) if the export
sector
> isn't acting as a genuine drag on the economy. It isn't right now,
> but profits have surely peaked for this cycle, and there are a lot
of
> questions looking forward, as we can see from this morning's
business
> headlines.
>
> I expect a lot of choppiness on Monday here, DT. We are at a
> dollar/yen level that begs MOF intervention. However, there may not
> be much here, as it was last year's interventions that have placed
> such a strain on the Euro, forcing it to be the prime victim of
> dollar weakness. Politically, that isn't going to play very well
> this time around. Nonetheless, traders will be on guard for it, and
> may not push the downside too hard, just in case.
>
> There will be those who will try and defend 11,000. Clearly that
> line is meaningless this year, however, it's been crossed more times
> than a pilgrim visiting Vatican City. ^^_^^ The recent leg is not
> in trouble technically (again IMO) until we get a close below 10,900
> (this is near term, however, mid term that level will rise), just as
> Friday's train wreck in the US does not change market dynamics yet.
> It just bled off some hyperventilation, which certainly was in order
> and needed to be vented.
>
> I think it's safe to say here, however, that the powerful rally I
was
> hoping for is not materializing. Not yet, anyway. Most of the time
> the smart thing to do is cautiously play at the margins anyway,
> awaiting those rare periods when it pays (significantly pays, I
might
> add) to be rather reckless. I'd hoped we were nearing one of these
> periods, but the signs have weakened considerably. Monday, I may
> take the day off. I can't imagine a scenario on Monday that would
> make me want to take a position either way. The fall colors are
> beginning to cascade down the mountainsides all the way to the sea
> now, and the parks in Tokyo are beginning to look like great places
> to have a lunch date with my friends Mr. Chardonnay, Mr. Baguette,
> and Ms. Frommage. (^_-)
>
> Best,
>
> Yuki
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