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Hi Natasha,
Wednesday, November 17, 2004, 11:49:27 PM, you wrote:
NMS> Sir,
NMS> Dont do that i and quite a few of my friends are in
NMS> the trial period and our currency position is a lot worse than
NMS> that .We are not from any banana republic but well even then
NMS> today for us the dollar is 45 of our currency and also
NMS> according to some of your own indicators and charts the dollar
NMS> is going to have a dead cat bounce back so well frankly we feel
NMS> you should reconsider.
NMS> Thanks . and we still feel amibroker is one of
NMS> the best around. and so is the group.
At the prices projected, however, AB remains a very fairly priced
program. I would say it's still very much a bargain.
Is the dollar in trouble? Well, Paul Volker (now I am showing my
age) has gone on record as saying that there is a 75 percent chance
of a dollar crisis in the next five years.
My goodness. This is not some schmuck running a precious metals tout
newsletter (although in dollar terms these schmucks may soon look
like Einsteins); this is a former chairman of the Federal Reserve. If
*he* says there is *that* high a chance of serious trouble, I have to
pay attention to the risk, a risk that in my entire life to date has
been pretty much negligible.
It's always such an interesting game, the world economy. For a
couple of years or more now, East Asia, in particular Japan and
China, have been subsidizing US consumption by buying dollars, thus
allowing the US to keep interest rates absurdly low, in a sense,
loaning your customers money so that they can continue to buy from
you. Even the most ignorant businessman would rather quickly realize
that this is unsustainable. And any attempt to sustain it would
result in an inevitable crash much worse than simply facing up to the
adjustment that is necessary right now. Also, Americans have
re-elected the big tax cutter, who is also a champion of big spending
and big government (and who, I suspect, secretly wants to play an
invigorated version of William Jennings Bryan in a Broadway revival
of 'The Scopes Monkey Trial'). ^^_^^
So, the US has huge deficits, huge spending, low taxes, and an
educational system seemingly on the verge of discarding science in
favor of religious fervor. Did I mention the impending retirement of
the baby boomers?
Can I sell you some dollars? (We have a stack of them kilometers
high over here in Tokyo.) (^_-)
But I digress. The price rise is fair, although I'm surprised AB is
not priced in Euros.
Yuki
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