|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Hi DIMITRIS,
Tuesday, November 9, 2004, 8:12:29 PM, you wrote:
DT> The last 6 months [from the end April peak] is a typical
DT> descending triangle. The basis of the triangle [~10,600] is a
DT> weak support. On the other side, 10,900 became a strong
DT> resistance day by day. In 9 bars we will meet the 0.618 of the
DT> main uptrend period [28/4/2003-15/4/2004] It will be probably a
DT> trough, since the previous 0.500 was a fair peak [Oct7] Etc, etc.
Possible of course. But we are sitting *north* of 10,900 at the
moment, so that cannot be classified as resistance until such time as
we break below it. ^_^
Triangles that elongate like this one, in my experience, tend to
peter out sideways rather than break sharply either way when they
should. For me, the early October rally kind of broke that pattern
anyway, but it's a judgment call for sure. A good chance we won't
recognize it as a triangle when that happens. Could be a base, too.
If we close lower than 10,870, it will be time to get nervous. But
I'll make a long play there anyway -- I've been nervous before, and
I'm used to it. ^^_^^ I'm not stubborn, however, and a close below
10,850 would make me *very* uncomfortable. And this is a small
spread to be sure.
Right now, based on volume and oscillators, this is still a pull back
asking to be bought. Things change however; I'll grant you that.
Time is a big factor in my calculations, however. I don't sit and
wait and hope forever. That is the kiss of death. I want to see a
rally by Thursday, Friday at the very latest. If it doesn't come,
I'll begin to strongly suspect my assumptions, and react accordingly.
I won't sit with five pull back bars in this spot, the only exception
being if they really level out and suggest a very firm downside.
Still, I consider time, expressed in bars, very important. I really
want to see price back above the 50 SMA (~11,040) in short order.
Another failure there and another pullback from that level would not
make me happy at all.
In the end, we are at an inflection point here for sure, I think.
This will resolve itself rather clearly before very long, IMHO. I
can respect downside arguments here of course. They keep me on my
toes, if nothing else.
There is an eagerness to selling sometimes, an eagerness I don't see
here at the moment. Quite the contrary. But, that doesn't mean I
won't see it tomorrow. ^_^
Strongest argument in your favor? The October mid-month melt-down
while I was chasing reptiles in Oz (they have a *lot* of reptiles up
north, and beautiful butterflies, too) had to disappoint a lot of
longs. Each disappointment like that means there are more players
won't be coming back in . . . unless and until they are forced to.
Best,
Yuki
------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~-->
Make a clean sweep of pop-up ads. Yahoo! Companion Toolbar.
Now with Pop-Up Blocker. Get it for free!
http://us.click.yahoo.com/L5YrjA/eSIIAA/yQLSAA/GHeqlB/TM
--------------------------------------------------------------------~->
Check AmiBroker web page at:
http://www.amibroker.com/
Check group FAQ at: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/files/groupfaq.html
Yahoo! Groups Links
<*> To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/
<*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
amibroker-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
<*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
|