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The last 6 months [from the end April peak] is a typical descending
triangle.
The basis of the triangle [~10,600] is a weak support.
On the other side, 10,900 became a strong resistance day by day.
In 9 bars we will meet the 0.618 of the main uptrend period
[28/4/2003-15/4/2004]
It will be probably a trough, since the previous 0.500 was a fair
peak [Oct7]
Etc, etc.
Dimitris
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Yuki Taga <yukitaga@xxxx> wrote:
> Hi DIMITRIS,
>
> Tuesday, November 9, 2004, 4:48:48 PM, you wrote:
>
> DT> Yuki, How about testing the 10,600 soon ?
>
> It would be a real test, for sure. As I'm confident that you know,
> this is the "line in the sand". Since late July, we have been in an
> 800 point range basis the ^225. 11,400 has been the upside, and
> 10,600 has been the downside.
>
> I cannot rule out a test of that number. But I would give up my
> positions before that, and regroup to fight another day. We are
dead
> smack in the middle of the range now, which makes prognostication
> rather difficult. At that number, I'd have to try again, however,
> although I'd probably demand a discount because of the negativity.
>
> In early October, I thought we were embarking on a run.
Nonetheless,
> I went to tropical Queensland, convinced that I was going to miss a
> pull back that I'd want to buy. Fortunately, I was chasing
> crocodiles in Cape Tribulation when the "opportunity" presented
> itself. As you know, the market simply melted down in mid October
> after the early October run.
>
> Why this is different, I'm not sure. But the volume totals look
> different to me, and the election, and $55 a barrel oil, are behind
> us. Clearly, there are other potential traps of course. There
> always are.
>
> Best,
>
> Yuki
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