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If you're talking about 30% of total equity monthly *and* compounding
it, that happens but never consistently and it never will (on this
planet anyway) because it would eventually become limited by liquidity
for one thing. The greatest trader who ever lived was Warren Buffett
who averaged *only* around 35% per *year* compounded. He's not just a
long term investor BTW:
http://www.fool.com/news/commentary/2003/commentary030813bm.htm
Not saying Buffet's performance is the cosmic limit but it does make a
good benchmark for consistent, compounded performance. Take out the
compounding and the benchmark would be higher. Don't think that's
shooting too low given that he's the second richest man in the world.
Don't confuse seasoned skepticism with stodgy. If you want to think
big, instead of picking arbitrary monthly performance numbers out of
the air I think a better question would be something like: if God
wrote a mechanical trading system with a few lines of AFL, what would
it be?
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Herman van den Bergen"
<psytek@xxxx> wrote:
> Yuki, Just to clear up any misunderstanding, that 20% was just a
figure of
> speech. Nevertheless, a nice figure to aim for, but of course I
dream of
> doing much better!
>
> I have a fun question for you... if you were developing some new
code around
> a completely new idea and your backtest shows it makes 30%/month at
3
> trades/day, are you so sure this would be impossible that you would
delete
> the code without a further look? Or would your blood pressure go up
just a
> tiny bit?
>
> Take care,
> herman.
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Yuki Taga [mailto:yukitaga@x...]
> Sent: Tuesday, October 05, 2004 6:53 AM
> To: Herman van den Bergen
> Subject: [amibroker] OT Shooting the moon (Was: Tillson T3)
>
>
> Hi Herman,
>
> Tuesday, October 5, 2004, 7:34:28 PM, you wrote:
>
> HvdB> OT. This may have been before your time Yuki
>
> I am pretty sure I pre-date Steve on this list, but maybe not.
>
> HvdB> but when Steve joined this list long ago some traditional
> HvdB> traders were also skeptical about Steve's mechanical trading
> HvdB> claims. Steve was actually coerced into producing
testimonials
> HvdB> to support his claims (he did). imho, In trading one has to
> HvdB> think "big" because in the end practical profits will just
be a
> HvdB> fraction of the backtests.
>
> Don't confuse Steve with anyone claiming 100 percent a month, or
even
> 20 percent a month. ^_^
>
> HvdB> For some odd reason many new ideas are usually shot down by
> HvdB> traders with 20+ years of experience.
>
> I have that, and more. It's not the new ideas that get shot down,
> just the patently absurd claims. I happen to think Steve's
> mechanical systems make money; I just couldn't stand the DDs.
>
> HvdB> Mechanical-trading, automated-trading, trading the market,
are
> HvdB> just a few topics of recent years that were hard to swallow
by
> HvdB> some. Remember the day people were laughing about going to
the
> HvdB> moon? Probably before your time too :-)))
>
> Gee, I'd already lost my virginity by then. ^_^ What does *that*
> tell ya? (No, it wasn't Steve.) ^_-
>
> HvdB> Take care Yuki, I love your posts so keep them coming!
> HvdB> herman
>
> Yuki
>
>
>
> Check AmiBroker web page at:
> http://www.amibroker.com/
>
> Check group FAQ at:
> http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/files/groupfaq.html
>
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