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--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Ken Close" <closeks@xxxx> wrote:
> DT: Of course! I agree with your hesitations. I believe that some
> ratios are "more common", ie, reversals occur at some ratios more
often
> than others. EW aficionados can usually "tell" which ratios are more
> likely. Much of it (it being somewhat voodooish, somewhat
experience)
> depends on previous patterns, which wave, what timeframe. You are
> certainly right to wait for other signs and signals. Plus, we
should
> always use OTHER confirming indicators or supporting information.
>
> The Dynamic Trader program will also allow you to plot/extend fib
time
> ratios (something I asked TJ for over two years ago---but I am not
so
> anxious anymore). With this, you can plot various fib retracement
> ratios from various pivot points in the past. You can superimpose
fib
> time ratios. This allows you to draw a "box" (price retracement
levels
> form horizontal parts of the box, while time ratios form the
vertical
> sides of the box) which is supposed to represent a very high
probability
> "zone" (time and price) for a tradeable reversal. Wavemechanic here
> uses DT (I believe) and perhaps could comment.
>
> After all that, I agree with a hesitation, and do not know how to
> consistently make these kinds of trades. Others, however, can and
do.
>
> Have a nice day.
>
> Ken
>
> PS: I imagine your creative programming talents still do not enable
you
> to program fib time lines.....????? :-(
>
Ken,
thank you for your reply, I think there is a clear message to the
readers, an impressive code is not enough for impressive profits.
As for your PS, there is a built-in Fib time zones tool in amibroker.
Do you need something different ?
I was using, 3 years ago, another approach :Define a time segment
A1A2 [two main peaks, for example] and then mark on the chart the
fib*A1A2 points. If it is interesting, we can code it right now.
If another time principle comes in your mind, give a rough
description and we shall translate it.
Dimitris Tsokakis
Dimitris Tsokakis
> -----Original Message-----
> From: DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS [mailto:TSOKAKIS@x...]
> Sent: Saturday, June 12, 2004 2:18 PM
> To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: [amibroker] Re: Fib solutions vs the tough market decisions
>
> Ken,
> I didn't explain the usual Fib pattern since it is easily available.
> The question is the same : Why not 0.382, why not 0.500, why yes
the
> 0.618. If you have already two Long positions at 0.382 AND 0.50,
> would you keep on buying the 0.618 ? The bad news is that there is
NO
> priority rule, all levels are equally probable [this is the wrong
use
> of the statistics, 0.382 WAS perfect 3 months ago but 1.61 WAS true
> gold 9 months ago etc etc].
> Note also that we speak for emotional trading in front of 0.618
[with
> 0.382 AND 0.50 already false]. Is this 0.618 the only emotional
> factor this specific day? Certainly not. Some INTC would announce
> results [loosing -2.5% one h before the announcement...], some OPEC
> meeting is ready to decide, your cash flow is not in the best
> condition etc. I hope you know the situation and you will probably
> agree with my hesitations.
> Dimitris Tsokakis
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Ken Close" <closeks@xxxx> wrote:
> > Dimitris:
> >
> >
> >
> > Hello: thanks for this unique code, innovative and interesting
as
> is
> > most of your postings.
> >
> >
> >
> > I am not criticizing your observations but I would make my own
> > observation that the reversal at D in your diagram is almost
> exactly at
> > the 0.618 retracement of the STRAIGHT support fib lines drawn
from a
> > bottom at you're a to the top at C. This does not in any way
> invalidate
> > your observations, and I myself would not make a buy on the day a
> bar
> > hits one of the fib ratios, but would it be possibly true that
> hitting a
> > more traditional "STRAIGHT" support fib retracement ratio could be
> > considered a SETUP and then if the next x bars (say three) are
up,
> or a
> > very short EMA of price turns up, then that could be confirmation
> and
> > one could enter then with more confidence?? Is it not a
> possibility?
> > Further, the weekly chart shows that the very same low is 38.2%
fib
> > retracement from the low on 5/2/2003 to the same "C" top on
> 4/15/2004.
> > I believe it is "common" knowledge among those who use these
setups
> that
> > the probabilities are higher when different time frame reversals
> occur
> > at common fib retracement levels.
> >
> >
> >
> > Thanks again for your innovative coding.
> >
> >
> >
> > Ken
> >
> >
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: Dimitris Tsokakis [mailto:TSOKAKIS@x...]
> > Sent: Saturday, June 12, 2004 11:58 AM
> > To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: [amibroker] Fib solutions vs the tough market decisions
> >
> >
> >
> > Many [and potential] foreign traders preferred the TokyoSE the
last
> > months.
> >
> > After a prolonged uptrend, the big boys [not the crowd !!]
decided
> to
> > apply severe pressure [C]
> >
> > The index was loosing -2% or -3% or -5% without any serious
> resistance.
> >
> > The tough question was the magnitude of the correction.
> >
> > Fibonacci buyers failed at all known levels.
> >
> > Although my innovative research was not posted this period,
Oblique
> Fib
> > traders would also fail
> >
> > to catch the proper Buy level.
> >
> > This failure sounds somehow descriptive now but it could cost a
lot
> of
> > money, because
> >
> > 1. 0.382 [negative]
> >
> > 2. 0.500 [negative again]
> >
> > 3. 0.618 [the great secret for many silent traders, but, negative
> again]
> >
> > 4. 0.786 [many traders leave "the others" buy at 0.618 and come
and
> buy
> > everything at the tricky 0.786 but, the market is negative again]
> >
> > 5. 1.000 [Well, there is no doubt we still have a bullish
> environment,
> > the market will react at this level, but, negative again]
> >
> > 6. 1.618[the situation is serious now, buy at this level is
> equivalent
> > to a bank guarantee etc etc]
> >
> > This is the most tragic case, IMO. These buyers still wait, the
> market
> > ignored their intension, the market
> >
> > was not interested for the color of their money, if they still
want
> to
> > buy let us take now a +2% and a +2.4%
> >
> > and, if they forget these Fib stories, let them buy +5% higher.
If
> they
> > do not agree, they will pay another +5%
> >
> > 3 days later, it is a free market, they may buy whenever they
> want !!
> >
> > Since it is a real story and not a trade-fiction, I think I will
> never
> > place an order at any Fib level, horizontal
> >
> > or [the new] oblique.
> >
> > Dimitris Tsokakis
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
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