|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Bill,
when we use Fib lines [horizontal or oblique] we expect some accuracy
for both time/price.
The crowd is no way responsible for the main market pivots, the crowd
usually follows two or more days later.
Do not tell me that the crowd shorted CSCO on Jan20, 2004 and decided
to push CSCO for the next 4 months. The crowd was buying every moving
CSCO share the very previous bar [Friday, Jan16]at any price [even
above +7% !!!] and the crowd is the 91M shares. I doubt if anybody
remembers the reason for this crazy "BUY" day.[N100 80% advissues !!]
The crowd began to "smell" the bearish odour 8 bars later. The first
7 bars of the decline Vol is low to moderate and began to increase
after the 8th bar.
It is the potential traders who turn the market, not the crowd.
And these traders have a clear perception of the recent trend.
So, if it is to speak for ACCURATE Fib relations, let us forget the
crowd and their psychology, they [we] always act with a
characteristic delay.
Dimitris Tsokakis
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "wavemechanic" <wd78@xxxx> wrote:
> DT:
>
> You say that "... oblique lines offer a more realistic approach to
Fib relations ... Fib lines should not be static, if they express any
psychological reactions, they should follow the trend." It is not
obvious to me that either statement describes the reality. As Ara
notes, the crowd controls and Fibonacci and Gann retracement targets
are often found to be important. It is hard to imagine that the
crowd can keep track of trends in their collective head with
sufficient accuracy, as opposed to a relatively simple pivot level.
Beyond that, it has been argued that retracements from pivots are
consistent with the "natural order of things" as expressed by the
Fibonacci series and logarithmic growth. Given this to utilize a
trend versus a pivot one would have to figure out how successful
pivotal retracement techniques can morph into a retracement that
follows a trend and converges with pivotal targets. If that is true,
it will certainly take a significant effort to verify.
>
> Bill
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS"
> <TSOKAKIS@xxxx> wrote:
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Ara Kaloustian" <ara1@xxxx>
wrote:
> > Dimitri,
> >
> > This is a rather ingenious piece of creativity.... in
considering
> the oblique fibs...
> >
> > This is the first time I have heard of them...
> >
> > Wondering if this is your creation or is there a following to
this
> theory / technique.
>
> I have had a discussion this morning about Fib lines.
> My opinion was that the oblique lines would offer a more
realistic
> approach to Fib relations [if any].
> Fib lines should not be static, if they express any psychological
> reactions, they should follow the trend.
> In the usual approach we decide one sunny morning, for the next
20,
> 30 or more bars, that the "target" is , say, a 38% of the recent
> trend. This is static and, in technical terms, makes an
unrealistic
> assumption :the support line is horizontal. We all know it is not
> true. The "targets" should change according to the evolution of
the
> market.
> The first, crude approximation was to keep the linear character
of
> these lines and assign to them the slope of the recent market
action.
> Some next step would be to replace the straight lines with
curves,
> something similar to sigma bands etc.
> This is the main concept, the rest is AFL.
> Dimitris Tsokakis
>
> > Reason I ask is that I have seen the static fibs work very
> well ...
> and even though it make clear sense that the oblique one should
be
> better, these things work on "herd mentality" ... so wondering
how
> much of a herd there is ....
> >
> > Have you been using this for some time?
> >
> > Kalinychta
> >
> > Ara
------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~-->
Make a clean sweep of pop-up ads. Yahoo! Companion Toolbar.
Now with Pop-Up Blocker. Get it for free!
http://us.click.yahoo.com/L5YrjA/eSIIAA/yQLSAA/GHeqlB/TM
--------------------------------------------------------------------~->
Check AmiBroker web page at:
http://www.amibroker.com/
Check group FAQ at: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/files/groupfaq.html
Yahoo! Groups Links
<*> To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/
<*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
amibroker-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
<*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
|