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Phsst,
Of course vix is totally unreliable !!
Try to define what is this "low" [a definition valid for 2-3 years]
and you will see !!
Back in the happy march 2002, an 20 was the superb "low" for VIX [or
better ^VXO].
Now, the ^VXO is below 20 the last 6 months or so !!!
What was the "low" among all these lows ???
Do you remember the great Nov3, 2003 low at 16.72 ???
Many VXO followers were speaking for the great signal, but, since
then, the market gained another 100 points.
Then it came the lowest low of Dec17, 2003 with VXO at 15 this time.
But, the market gained another 150 units and so on.
VXO "lows" reminds me Sergei Bubka records, the end of successive
highs was only the end of the great Sergei career.
Dimitris Tsokakis
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Phsst" <phsst@xxxx> wrote:
> <I think the market got a curve ball (baseball pitch that doesn't
fly
> straight) from the Fed.>
>
> Three months from now when we have all but forgotten what the Fed
did
> on Monday, we will look back at the charts and notice the low VIX
> number prior to the selloff.
>
> Some of us will then say Damn... shoulda, woulda, coulda.!
> Others will say Damn that VIX is unreliable!
>
> he he he...
>
> Phsst
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Yuki Taga <yukitaga@xxxx> wrote:
> > Hi DIMITRIS,
> >
> > Thursday, January 29, 2004, 4:10:46 PM, you wrote:
> >
> > DT> Yuki, I wish you luck !! As you see, the market is prompt
enough
> > DT> to pay for the multiple divergence.
> >
> > I really disagree, but we'll never know. I think the market got a
> > curve ball (baseball pitch that doesn't fly straight) from the
Fed.
> > If the Fed had not surprised, US would have been up today, and so
> > would we. I suspect US will be up tonight, be we'll see.
> >
> > In any case, we closed very strong, almost getting back
everything on
> > the futures, which closed on the high. The Fed comments mean
little,
> > and the only negative for us is that there will NOT be tightening
in
> > the near future, leaving the yen to appreciate more.
> >
> > This time, I will say the multiple divergence got a gift. ^^_^^
> >
> > In any case, you have to fade an overreaction by the market. If
you
> > don't, you are left to play the same reaction the crowd plays.
That
> > is usually a mistake.
> >
> > We shall see. ^_-
> >
> > Yuki
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