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Hi Phsst,
Thursday, January 29, 2004, 9:20:08 PM, you wrote:
P> <I think the market got a curve ball (baseball pitch that doesn't fly
P> straight) from the Fed.>
P> Three months from now when we have all but forgotten what the Fed did
P> on Monday, we will look back at the charts and notice the low VIX
P> number prior to the selloff.
P> Some of us will then say Damn... shoulda, woulda, coulda.!
P> Others will say Damn that VIX is unreliable!
P> he he he...
Anyone who follows this, or who follows Larry Connors, who started
it, knows the following about VIX:
** There is no such thing as a "low VIX number". Larry will tell
you, it doesn't matter what the raw number is, only WHERE it is in
relation to its 10-day MA. That is the only thing that counts,
according to the guy who got all this rolling in "Street Smarts"
years ago.
** It has to be substantially (about 10 percent) below its 10-day MA
to indicate a sell signal.
On Tuesday (in the US), the day before the Fed announcement, VXO
closed essentially ON the 10-day MA. Same with the VIX. Both were
just a shade below, maybe about 1 percent, or one-tenth the required
amount.
The next thing you'll be suggesting, I guess, is that low raw VIX
numbers induce Fed policy statement changes.
^^_^^
Yuki
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