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--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Phsst" <phsst@xxxx> wrote:
> I quote from an previous Larry Conners editorial:
>
> "Low VIX readings (as we are seeing now) usually occur
> when the market rises. This is a signal that there
> is complacency in the market and a sell-off is near."
>
> Phsst
Low VIX is notoriously unreliable. In 1995 VIX spent the whole year
at around 13, just as the Great Bull Market of 1995-2000 took off. As
the market rose, VIX rose with it, averaging around 28 or so in 1999
and 2000. Everyone is conditioned to think that falling VIX = rising
prices and vice versa, but it doesn't always work that way.
A possible outcome for this market, which I've seen very few discuss,
is that the indexes may simply go sideways during 2004 as earnings
catch up to the stock's evaluations. This would keep VIX low.
Regards,
Jim Varney
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