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Hi Phsst,
Friday, January 23, 2004, 10:39:05 AM, you wrote:
P> Yuki says: <I don't see shorting as the road to profitability
P> however. Not yet. When it comes to counter tread, I almost never
P> go after the turns. I want to see fear, not just locking in gains.
P> And the fear I want to see is fear of loss, not just fear of
P> evaporating paper gains. The former is a much stronger brand of
P> fear, as I'm sure you know.>
P> FWIW...
P> Went to lunch with a good friend today & he reminded me to look at the
P> !VIX.
P> I quote from an previous Larry Conners editorial:
P> "Low VIX readings (as we are seeing now) usually occur when the market
P> rises. This is a signal that there is complacency in the market and a
P> sell-off is near."
P> Phsst
So, are you calling something? ^^_^^ The fact is, the VIX has been
trending down now almost since Dylan went electric. And people have
been bemoaning these low VIX levels for some time now, yet these
levels have yet to produce even a 5 percent correction in the US (VIX
also jumped 2 1/2 percent last night, so it's not so far off the
10-day now). Sure, eventually it's going to be right, but it seems
recently like the economist who called 8 of the last 3 recessions.
In any case, we ended up higher this morning. But all this week the
PM session has taken away what the AM session has given. This may be
too obvious however, and we might get a surprise today.
The banks are key today. They have not participated largely in the
fun and games of the past week or so, and they simply turned the
market back up this morning after an early test lower. Reverse the
banks today, and the market could roll over. But they are up on good
volume, and unless they reverse the downside here is very limited.
The banks have been the bellwether for a long time now.
Will be an interesting afternoon for sure -- I got pulled into one of
the major banks long this morning; the only one that set up
yesterday. I am not crazy about the trade in light of the way the US
is setting up for tonight, but in such an obvious trend I do not
override longs, only shorts. Que sera, sera.
Yuki
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