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Points taken Jim.
VIX is just one of many potential Mkt Timing indicators which at any
point in time may or may not be significant.
But like all of the others, VIX deserves attention.
Don't take it too seriously, but don't ignore it either.
The game we play is filled with clues.
Phsst
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "jvarn359" <jvarn359@xxxx> wrote:
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Phsst" <phsst@xxxx> wrote:
>
> > I quote from an previous Larry Conners editorial:
> >
> > "Low VIX readings (as we are seeing now) usually occur
> > when the market rises. This is a signal that there
> > is complacency in the market and a sell-off is near."
> >
> > Phsst
>
> Low VIX is notoriously unreliable. In 1995 VIX spent the whole year
> at around 13, just as the Great Bull Market of 1995-2000 took off. As
> the market rose, VIX rose with it, averaging around 28 or so in 1999
> and 2000. Everyone is conditioned to think that falling VIX = rising
> prices and vice versa, but it doesn't always work that way.
>
> A possible outcome for this market, which I've seen very few discuss,
> is that the indexes may simply go sideways during 2004 as earnings
> catch up to the stock's evaluations. This would keep VIX low.
>
> Regards,
>
> Jim Varney
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