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Yuki,
1.
An invH&S with NEGATIVE SLOPE neck line [in a bullish environment] is
perhaps the best case [the same with a H&S with a positive slope neck
line in a bearish environment]. The target is lower day by day, time
is on your side.
I know we have different angles to see the same thing, but this is my
H&S experience : During the last bearish years the invH&S were rare
and could not reach the target, it was the verification period for
H&S. Now the environment has changed. As you remember, ^N225 could
not reach its last November H&S target, the bullish market was not
helping this [bearish] formation.
I do not trade ^N225 [I have to "study" it first], but SYMC broke its
neckline at $33 and will meet its negative slope target line at $37
[in 18 bars] and it is no way a joke.[Friday´s high was $37.3 ...]
2.
The timing system is for June2003 till May 2004 period. Note also
that it follows the top Equity and a draw back is not a surprise. As
I wrote yesterday, other potential combinations are coming to replace
the 25/28 if it is not the next IP champion. [I like the 18/37, it
has the 4th rank now but it is ascending the last bars...].
3. For the short term, the Keltner observation was interesting and
could take you from 10,715 [Jan16 opening] to 11,193[Jan20 high].
It was more than +4% in 3 sessions...
^N225 was a good boy today, its high touched the upper TEMA Keltner
resistance in 3 sessions and this is perhaps an explanation why we
may still use this 40-year theory like a 40-year red wine [note here
that I still enjoy the Stones...]
Dimitris
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Yuki Taga <yukitaga@xxxx> wrote:
> Hi Dimitris,
>
> Monday, January 19, 2004, 4:36:16 PM, you wrote:
>
> DT> Keltner theory was presented some 40 years ago.
> DT> As for the invH S, it is very close now to confirm the target.
> DT> [The Nikkei futures have already penetrated the target line]
>
> Still one of the uglier H&S patterns I've ever seen. ^^_^^ But you
> called it, and it appears to be a good call. Unfortunately, the
> timing system said 'short' on 1/15. This would not have been a good
> trade to take at all, at least at the moment.
>
> One of the nicest things is trading very short term in a market like
> this however. With yesterday's close we are back to ~15 percent
over
> the 200 day MA. This puts one right in the dilemma of knowing there
> is perhaps another 5, maybe even 10, percent disparity possible, and
> also knowing that a correction could be imminent. The nimble
> survive, however. I went long intraday yesterday; I will cash in
> chips this morning. I will let others look for the intermediate
top.
> I'm up about 2 and 1/2 percent this month, but the market is once
> again beating me like a red-headed step child ^^_^^ and it's only
the
> 20th of January.
>
> Yuki
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