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To see an example of what did the market really do the last 10 years,
try the
perc=40; y10=Year()>=1994;
z=Zig(C,perc);Plot(z,"Z",1,1);
Buy=(Year()==1994 AND Ref(Year(),-1)==1993) OR y10*(TroughBars(C,perc)
==0);
Sell=y10*(PeakBars(C,perc)==0);
Short=Sell;Cover=Buy;
The code buys/covers at the main troughs, sells/shorts at the main
peaks from 1994 till now.
For the Nikkei it is equivalent to a +560% and this net profit should
be compared to the trading results.
Note here that, for the same period, beating ^IXIC means profits >
3750% and beating ^NDX means profits>+16250%.
This is the realistic competition, it is a tough game [and you know
it better than me], B&H is for inactive investors or
mutual funds comparisons, not for traders.
We saw many MF ads during the bearish years cheating their customers
[we lost only 20%, the market lost 50% !!]
when, the very same period, they were severely shorting the market
from the back door.
Dimitris Tsokakis
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS" <TSOKAKIS@xxxx>
wrote:
> Yuki,
> It would be more fair to speak about the S&H [Short & Hold]
technique
> also.
> Do you have any statistics about the average time interval the
> potential Short Sellers keep their Short position in the Japanese
> market ?
> Is it a week, a month, 6 months or a year perhaps ?
> In this sense, it would not be that easy to beat the descending
> market, you should make Short profits better than the S&H for the
> last 5 years.
> This information would be quite important and could form a crude
> basis for the ^N225 periodicity [1Long/2 Short or even 1Long/3
Short
> periods] and then apply timeseries analysis, a quite flexible
> statistical tool.
> Some systems #buy every 20 days/sell every 24 days# are successful
> because they immitate this behavior by dividing a time interval
into
> rolling unequal parts.
> Dimitris Tsokakis
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Yuki Taga <yukitaga@xxxx> wrote:
> > Correction, obviously: ^_^
> >
> > YT> (the ^225 was trading at half of current levels about 8 years
> ago
> > YT> or so)
> >
> > Should have typed "twice the current level about 8 years ago".
> >
> > Yuki (vertically dyslexic) ^^_^^
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