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Hi Yuki; Just wanted to say I enjoy your running, sometimes disparate
commentary. It is a must read, as I apparently use a similar approach to
yours, albeit from a US viewpoint. And, occasionally, your comments lead
me off in a direction in which I learn something.
Thought you should know. 8->
Richard
Ps; And a belated Happy New Year to you!
----- Original Message -----
From: "Yuki Taga" <yukitaga@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, January 08, 2004 10:26 PM
Subject: [amibroker] Bannana Republics & honest markets
> Obviously, the two terms might cause a little cognitive dissonance. I
> will let the gentle reader decide if either applies here in Japan
> after this afternoon's little BoJ shenanigans.
>
> First and foremost, I write not out of any "sour grapes". I was flat
> when the fecal matter came flying in -- I had gone flat on the open.
> And I was contemplating a 3-day weekend under just those conditions:
> flat.
>
> If any of you are following the Dollar/Yen, you've probably noticed
> it's gone to sleep the past few days. Right around 106.2, give or
> take, most of this week.
>
> At about 2:25 pm today, 35 minutes before the market closed ahead of
> a 3-day weekend, the BoJ decided to ram the dollar up to more than
> 108 in the space of a few minutes. (It's now right back to 107.07 as
> I write 45 minutes later.)
>
> Naturally, this caused a huge, albeit temporary, spike in the ^225
> futures here. Okay, the BoJ certainly has the right to interfere,
> but I smell a rat. After opening higher on the back of the US
> numbers last night, the morning session saw the futures under
> constant attack, actually going negative before the morning session
> was out. In the PM session, however, there was a quick rebound, and
> by about 2:15 pm (maybe 10 minutes before the BoJ) we had gotten back
> to opening ground on the near futures (about 10,950).
>
> My questions are 1) why this timing, and 2) who else knew about it.
>
> I smell a very fat rat, I'm embarrassed to say.
>
> I really think we need a law forcing the BoJ to act outside of equity
> trading hours. They could still play games of course, but perhaps
> not as blatantly or as easily. I think a child could reason out what
> happened today. A child of about age 10.
>
> For those of you in the US, one think to think about perhaps. What
> if Yuki is wrong and the BoJ did this not to aid some market players,
> but out of a fear that a huge dollar hit is coming? Might there be
> any connection between that fear (if it truly exists) and tonight's
> employment report? It will be interesting to see how the evening
> unfolds. I am uncorking the Chardonney soon. ^^_^^
>
> Yuki
>
> P.S. Pal, I don't know what software on the planet would have gotten
> anyone out of a short dollar position this afternoon without major
> damage. I attach a chart of just what happened (times on the chart
> are US I think -- Power E-Trade Japan via Reuters).
>
>
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