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Hi DIMITRIS,
Friday, January 2, 2004, 10:05:43 PM, you wrote:
DT> Yuki, There are no two ways to see the graphs because a. The
DT> percentage in both trendlines AND H&S is the same [3%] I always
DT> keep this 3% for all Nikkei graphs in order to have the
DT> comparison. b. The Nikkei rising wedge IS NOT FORMATED YET. It
DT> will appear, perhaps, if the last bar will be a peak and the next
DT> highs fall BELOW -3% of this peak. It may happen but it may not,
DT> we donīt know yet. This is the way the trendlines work. A peak is
DT> recognised as a peak, as soon as prices confirm this -3% [or any
DT> other preselected %]. The available trendlines for now are the
DT> ones in the gif, for the 3% I use, there are no other trendlines.
I play a lot of Bridge, Dimitris (maybe you know the game; it's very
international). Love the game, and have gotten halfway decent at it
over the years.
There is an MS web site (the Game Zone) where one can always find
players. When a table is just beginning or when a player leaves, MS
has a (ro)bot take over the hand and play it in the absence of a
human player. The bots are not very good players or bidders, however
(bidding is really the essence of the game). People are always
complaining about how badly the bots bid, and how badly they play.
They are always suggesting that MS somehow upgrade the playing
ability of the bots by writing better programs.
But of course there is a reason that the bots are very bad players.
(It is the same reason some humans are very bad players, as well.)
The bots can only play by a strict mathematical formula. A
mathematical formula can give us a structure to operate in of course,
and as long as the environment is somewhat suited for that structure,
things work fairly well. However in Bridge, as in TA and trading,
there are times in which the environment changes quickly and suddenly
into an environment where "the rules" can be, or even need to be,
completely ignored. Good players can capitalize on these times, and
of course these are precisely the times where the bots look like
exactly what they are: brainless idiots. ^_- Always having to adhere
strictly to the formulae is deadly in Bridge, and I suspect in
trading as well.
It is an interesting question whether the formulae are simply too
few, or too simple, to be of value in those unusual circumstances or
not. Perhaps someday, AI will reach a level in which the programs
can truly think. This will take some doing however, as it will
require at least two capabilities that computers don't show much
promise in: rule breaking, and imagination. Maybe someday. Until
then however, they remain largely incapable of recognizing the
anomalies, those times when the rule book needs to go out the window.
Interesting questions though, don't you think?
Yuki
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