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Re: getting same results...was Re: [amibroker] Re: any karnish watchers out there? For Steve


  • To: <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • Subject: Re: getting same results...was Re: [amibroker] Re: any karnish watchers out there? For Steve
  • From: "john gibb" <jgibb1@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • Date: Wed, 26 Nov 2003 05:37:37 -0800
  • In-reply-to: <!~!UENERkVCMDkAAQACAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAABgAAAAAAAAA2Mnzd+k9+kGONOzq/+THfSKkAAAQAAAAbFlUeacf2BG52QgARgK1AQEAAAAA@xxxxxxxxxxx>
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Hi Paul,
 
just a qucik note to tell u i am out of town for a 
week or so..but will pick this up when i get back...hopefully u saw Dimitris' 
note on his data sources...
 
i am not sure what to do about this 
lack-of-standard-data problem...
 
thanks
 
-john
<BLOCKQUOTE 
>
  ----- Original Message ----- 
  <DIV 
  >From: 
  Paul Binnell 
  
  To: <A title=amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
  href="">amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
  Sent: Tuesday, November 25, 2003 5:25 
  PM
  Subject: RE: getting same results...was 
  Re: [amibroker] Re: any karnish watchers out there? For Steve
  
  <FONT 
  size=2>John
  <FONT 
  size=2>    I use Quotes plus data.  I have attached a 
  spread sheet adding the QP open prices and diff between Yahoo and 
  E-Signal.  QP stores some of these quotes as fractions.  And 
  the problem may be rounding errors.  As for the AB version I am using the 
  most recent Beta version.  You will see on the spread sheet that I have 
  used red "Y" for diff between Yahoo and QP and red "E" for diff between 
  E-Signal and QP.  Maybe Dimitris can let us know 
  where his data comes from.  I downloaded Yahoo data for the QQQ and ran 
  the scan.  I did it twice.  Once using a round lot size of 100 and 
  the next allowing for fractions of a share.  It seems that my entry 
  and exit times are different with Yahoo data and they don't seem to be the 
  same as yours.  You will also notice that when I changed the round lot 
  size the system went from 199% to 282%.  
  
  <FONT face=Arial 
  size=2> 
  <FONT face=Arial 
  size=2>Paul
  <FONT face=Arial 
  size=2> 
  <FONT face=Arial 
  size=2> 
  
  -----Original Message-----From: john 
  gibb [mailto:jgibb1@xxxxxxxxxxxxx] Sent: 25 November 2003 
  16:38To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: getting same 
  results...was Re: [amibroker] Re: any karnish watchers out there? For 
  Steve
  
    Hi Paul,
     
    As you will see in the attached Excel file 
    there are a significant number of discrepancies in our trades. (a red x 
    marks both date and Open price discrepancies).
     
    Also, your Trade List includes the column 
    Position Size; mine does not. What version of Amibroker are you 
    using?
     
    I then downloaded free Esignal historical data 
    for the QQQs as a potential benchmark source and marked, again with a 
    red x Open price discrepancies. (Interestingly, Yahoo doesn't have data for 
    9/11/2001)  (See attached)
     
    So there is quite a bit of work to come up with 
    a clean QQQ database on which to test. 
     
    In an effort to get the same results, our 
    next step might simply be declaring Yahoo, 
    Esignal, or ??? as our 'best' data source and we both test using 
    it--without regard to data errors.
     
    What do you think?
     
    -john
    ----- Original Message ----- 
    <BLOCKQUOTE 
    >
      <DIV 
      >From: 
      john 
      gibb 
      To: <A 
      title=amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
      href="">amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
      
      Sent: Monday, November 24, 2003 8:53 
      PM
      Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: any 
      karnish watchers out there? For Steve
      
      Hi Paul,
       
      I have attached my HTML report file in which 
      I notice that I have one more winning and one less losing trade than 
      you.
       
      In addition, apparently due to different 
      data, we have different trades.
       
      I started to go throught the list and marked 
      in red on my list below some discrepancies.  Tomorrow I will complete 
      the list and double check the Open on the days in question with a 
      couple of different data sources. 
       
      BTW, what data source did you 
      use?
       
      
      <SPAN 
      >Trade<SPAN 
      >       Entry 
      date<SPAN 
      >                
      Entry price<SPAN 
      >              
      Exit date  Exit 
      price Net Profit<SPAN 
      >    Equity 
      value
      <FONT 
      face="Times New Roman">Out<SPAN 
      >          
      <SPAN 
      >6/1/2000<SPAN 
      ><SPAN 
      >                  
      85.19<SPAN 
      >                       
      <SPAN 
      >6/2/2000<SPAN 
      >  
      92.63<SPAN 
      >       
      0.00<SPAN 
      >              10000.00
      <FONT 
      face="Times New Roman">Long<SPAN 
      >        
      <SPAN 
      ><FONT 
      color=#ff0000>6/2/2000<SPAN 
      ><SPAN 
      >                  
      92.63<SPAN 
      >       
      <SPAN 
      >6/19/2000<SPAN 
      ><SPAN 
      >                
      94.02<SPAN 
      >       
      92.40<SPAN 
      >       
      10092.40
      <FONT 
      face="Times New Roman">Short<SPAN 
      >       <FONT 
      color=#ff0000> <st1:date Year="2000" Day="19" 
      Month="6"><FONT 
      color=#ff0000>6/19/2000<SPAN 
      ><SPAN 
      >                
      94.02<SPAN 
      >       
      <SPAN 
      >7/7/2000<SPAN 
      ><SPAN 
      >                  
      95.00<SPAN 
      >       
      -145.69    
      9946.71
      <FONT 
      face="Times New Roman">Long<SPAN 
      >        
      <SPAN 
      >7/7/2000<SPAN 
      ><SPAN 
      >                   
      95.00<SPAN 
      >       
      <SPAN 
      >7/11/2000<SPAN 
      ><SPAN 
      >                
      94.06<SPAN 
      >       
      -141.02    
      9805.69
      <FONT 
      face="Times New Roman">Short<SPAN 
      >        
      <SPAN 
      >7/11/2000<SPAN 
      ><SPAN 
      >                
      94.06<SPAN 
      >       
      <SPAN 
      >8/3/2000<SPAN 
      ><SPAN 
      >                  84.25<SPAN 
      >       
      936.67     
      10742.36
      <FONT 
      face="Times New Roman">Long<SPAN 
      >        
      <SPAN 
      >8/3/2000<SPAN 
      ><SPAN 
      >                  
      84.25<SPAN 
      >       
      <SPAN 
      >8/8/2000<SPAN 
      ><SPAN 
      >                  92.06<SPAN 
      >       
      737.17     
      11479.53
      <FONT 
      face="Times New Roman">Short<SPAN 
      >        
      <SPAN 
      >8/8/2000<SPAN 
      ><SPAN 
      >                  
      92.06<SPAN 
      >       
      <SPAN 
      >9/20/2000<SPAN 
      ><SPAN 
      >                
      93.38<SPAN 
      >       
      -177.61    
      11301.93
      <FONT 
      face="Times New Roman">Long<SPAN 
      >        
      <SPAN 
      >9/20/2000<SPAN 
      ><SPAN 
      >                
      93.38<SPAN 
      >       
      <SPAN 
      >9/22/2000<SPAN 
      ><SPAN 
      >                
      87.63<SPAN 
      >       
      -620.25    
      10681.68
      <FONT 
      face="Times New Roman">Short<SPAN 
      >        
      <SPAN 
      ><FONT 
      color=#ff0000>9/22/2000<SPAN 
      ><SPAN 
      >                
      87.63<SPAN 
      >       
      <SPAN 
      >10/4/2000<SPAN 
      ><SPAN 
      >                
      83.50<SPAN 
      >       
      369.72     
      11051.39
      <FONT 
      face="Times New Roman">Long<SPAN 
      >        
      <SPAN 
      ><FONT 
      color=#ff0000>10/4/2000<SPAN 
      ><SPAN 
      >                
      83.50<SPAN 
      >       
      <SPAN 
      >10/19/2000<SPAN 
      ><SPAN 
      >              
      82.39<SPAN 
      >       
      -152.41    
      10898.98
      <FONT 
      face="Times New Roman"><SPAN 
      > 
      <FONT face=Arial 
      size=2>BTW, does anybody know of a good 'diff' utility for Windows? I 
      couldn't get Word's Tools | Compare and Merge feature to 
      work here.
      <FONT face=Arial 
      size=2> 
      <FONT face=Arial 
      size=2>-john
      <FONT face=Arial 
      size=2> 
      <BLOCKQUOTE 
      >
        ----- Original Message ----- 
        <DIV 
        >From: 
        Paul 
        Binnell 
        To: <A 
        title=amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
        href="">amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
        
        Sent: Monday, November 24, 2003 
        5:22 PM
        Subject: RE: [amibroker] Re: any 
        karnish watchers out there? For Steve
        I've been reading this thread also and at this point with 
        the settings Ihave read I can only get it to 172.70% for the date 
        June 1 2000 toNovember 21, 2003.  Maybe Dimitris or John could 
        attach there report forthe afl so I can compare it to mine.  
        That way I can check dates andprices to ensure that there is no 
        discrepancy there. I have attached myreport for this 
        afl.ThanxPaul-----Original Message-----From: 
        john gibb [mailto:jgibb1@xxxxxxxxxxxxx] Sent: 25 November 2003 
        01:50To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re: [amibroker] Re: 
        any karnish watchers out there? For SteveHi 
        Dimitris,Those settings increased my Return on Account to 
        295%...now i am only 55percentage points from your total.May 
        I assume you were citing Return on Account when you mentioned 
        +350%?My results are the same with both MSN and Yahoo EOD 
        data.Any other thoughts on why we are still so 
        different?thanks again,-john----- Original 
        Message ----- From: "DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS" 
        <TSOKAKIS@xxxxxxxxx>To: 
        <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>Sent: Monday, November 24, 2003 
        9:51 AMSubject: [amibroker] Re: any karnish watchers out there? For 
        Steve> John,> I used buy/sell/short/cover at +1 
        Open, commission 0.25%, all stops > disabled. Dimitris 
        Tsokakis> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "john gibb" 
        <jgibb1@xxxx> wrote:> > Dimitris, thanks for posting 
        this!> >> > Like Dave, I couldn't get as good 
        results as you got--with the> regular Backtester, Yahoo EOD, and 
        4.49.0. (While close to you on > drawdown and %winners, I got 
        nowhere near 350% return (my Return on > Account was 
        158%).> >> > I am attaching those results and my 
        settings file, in the hopes> that you can suggest how I can more 
        closely replicate your return. (I > suspect, like Dave, that it 
        is a difference in commissions; I use> 0.5%.)> 
        >> > thanks> >> > -john> 
        >   ----- Original Message ----- > >   
        From: Dave Merrill> >   To: 
        amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> >   Sent: Monday, 
        November 24, 2003 5:58 AM> >   Subject: RE: 
        [amibroker] Re: any karnish watchers out there? For> 
        Steve> >> >> >   One further 
        related question: You mention that this is "tuned to> the bearish 
        environment". Do you have an indicator that helps you know> 
        quantitatively when we're no longer in a bearish environment?> 
        >> >   Thanks,> >> 
        >   dave> >     Dimitris, 
        thanks for the ideas, I'll check it out. Besides a> QQQ trading 
        vehicle, I'm interested in the smoothing method you chose,> 
        and also your trend qualifier.> >> 
        >     Just out of curiosity, what commission 
        settings do you use? I'm> at 1%, which is my usual, but if that's 
        too stringent in this context,> maybe that's why my initial 
        results with this, and other things I've > tried, aren't as 
        spectacular.> >> >     I know 
        some of what I'm about to ask has been discussed here in> 
        general, but let me ask it in this specific context anyway: There are 
        > a number of parameters here, either adjustable or built into 
        the code.> If we wanted to optimize for better performance in 
        the current > environment, what test period would you think would 
        translate well to > the future? Going forward, when would you 
        think you'd want to optimize> again? How would you suggest we 
        distinguish a beautiful curve fit over> the test period from 
        settings likely to perform well in the future?> >> 
        >     Please don't take those questions as 
        anything other than what> they are, a sincere desire to 
        learn.> >> >     Dave> 
        >       Dave,> 
        >       It would be interesting to make 
        your own study on the STORSI.> 
        >       Here is an example for 
        QQQ.> >       It was tuned to 
        the bearish environement, the peak of the> Equity is> 
        >       very close to the change of the 
        trend.> >> >       // 
        A STORSI example for QQQ> 
        >       
        SetBarsRequired(1000,1000);> 
        >       function IIR2( input, f0, f1, 
        f2 )> >       {> 
        >         result[ 0 ] = 
        input[ 0 ];result[ 1 ] = input[ 1 ];> 
        >         for( i = 100; i 
        < BarCount; i++ )> 
        >         {> 
        >           result[ 
        i ] = f0 * input[ i ] + f1 * result[ i - 1 ] + f2> * 
        result> >       [ i - 2 
        ];> >         
        }> >         return 
        result;> >       }> 
        >       
        x=DEMA(RSI(10),10);t=20;> 
        >       
        C1=100*(x-LLV(x,t))/(HHV(x,t)-LLV(x,t));Plot(C1,"STORSI",1,1);> 
        >       K=0.4;> 
        >       RD=IIR2( C1, 0.3, 1.6, -0.9);// 
        SMOOTHED STOCHRSI> >       
        Plot(RD,"["+WriteVal(10*K,1.0)+"]",4+10*K,1);> 
        >       
        TREND=LinearReg(DEMA(C,20),30);// TREND QUALIFIER> 
        >       
        Plot(TREND,"TREND",4,styleOwnScale);> 
        >       
        BLEVEL=Optimize("BL",-19,-30,-10,1);Plot(BLEVEL,"BLEVEL",1,1);> 
        >       
        SLEVEL=Optimize("SL",49,40,60,1);Plot(SLEVEL,"SLEVEL",1,1);> 
        >       
        Buy=Cross(RD,BLEVEL);Sell=Cross(RD,SLEVEL);> 
        >       Short=Cross(RD,SLEVEL) 
        ;Cover=Buy;> >> 
        >       It is a good point to start and 
        tune it to the present> conditions,> 
        >       add trend characteristics [I 
        have added a TREND function, you> may> 
        >       select yours] etc.> 
        >       From June2000 till now, no 
        losing combinations, affordable> drawdowns> 
        >       [less than 40%] and very good 
        behavior when the bears define> the> 
        >       game...> 
        >       Better than +350%, 
        winners/losers ~2/1, not bad at all for> QQQ.> 
        >       Of course it is not the only 
        QQQ vehicle, it is just an> example to> 
        >       begin with.> 
        >       Dimitris Tsokakis> 
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