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John,
< For example, my first reaction to Jayson's system (using the QQQs
from their inception in 1999 to date is forget it)>
I understand. In fact when Anthony posted his rendition of the QQQ
effort, the 1st thing I did was backtest it against a basket of
stocks, which was not very productive.
<What do you use, if not 'return on account', as a first-pass evaluator?>
1) Yes, a quick glance at return on acct figures.
*If they were too low then look quickly to see if I made some
obvious mistake that could account for it.
**If they were too high then look quickly to see if I made some
obvious mistake that could account for it. <g>
2) Win / Loss ratios
3) Days held winners versus days held losers.
* If days held losers exceed days held winners then start thinking
about how to cut losses quicker.
4) Max Sys % DD
>From the above I make a decision to move on to something else or go
ahead and start tuning the strategy to see how it responds to other
filters.
Many others here are much more qualified to discuss this aspect of
backtesting / systems development than me. But with many hours of
systems development under your belt, you start instinctively applying
some of the same indicators / measurements that have worked for you
before.
I think that Tomasz is planning to add some color coding to some of
the Portfolio Test Report metrics to allow you to quickly see warning
measurements versus good measurements.
Regards,
Phsst
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "john gibb" <jgibb1@xxxx> wrote:
> Hi Phsst,
>
> this helps; thanks...
>
> using a large number of issues makes sense for your testing because
I assume
> you would consider trading any of those...
>
> i'm just looking for a sensible approach to evaluating systems both
for a)
> optionable stocks/indices and b) QQQ
>
> so far I conclude that, unfortunately, they are probably going to be
> different systems
>
> For example, my first reaction to Jayson's system (using the QQQs
from their
> inception in 1999 to date is forget it) (no offense, Jayson :) ) due
to the
> negative
> 'return on account'. But using my 2000 or so optionables, I got a small
> positive
> 'return on account'.
>
>
>
> thanks again,
>
> -john
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Phsst" <phsst@xxxx>
> To: <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Monday, November 24, 2003 10:43 AM
> Subject: [amibroker] StoRSI... was Re: Robustness
>
>
> > John,
> >
> > As I recall, Anthony's system focused upon QQQ test results, the same
> > as Dave's.
> >
> > I failed to qualify my post with the caveat that I don't restrict my
> > backtests to only one stock (I know that several folks do, but I just
> > don't trust the validity of test results that are so limited in
scope).
> >
> > So if you are trying to compare report-stat thresholds against the
> > QQQ's, then I am not qualified to help you.
> >
> > So my recommendation for looking at Jaysons StoRSI code was based upon
> > test results against hundreds or thousands of issues. This makes it
> > pretty easy to eyeball the report stats and see if there is anything
> > of interest there.
> >
> > I am not trading the StoRSI system. Rather I am tweaking it to get a
> > feel for how it responds to various filters and conditions. Even
> > though I have what I consider positive results that were achieved very
> > quickly, I want to understand how any potential 'finished product' I
> > come up with will react in many situations.
> >
> > Because of my early positive experience with the indicator, I thought
> > it worth mentioning on the forum.
> >
> > I don't think this is what you wanted to hear, but I hope it helps.
> >
> > Regards,
> >
> > Phsst
> >
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "john gibb" <jgibb1@xxxx> wrote:
> > > Hi Phsst,
> > >
> > > Can you share:
> > >
> > > a) what report-stat thresholds you looked at to conclude 'it
showed
> > > promise'
> > > b) any other specific recomendations to make a first-cut
> > evaluation on
> > > any proposed system. For example, if I want to quickly compare
Anthony's
> > > system in Message # 52872
> > > with Jayson's)
> > > ?
> > >
> > > thanks
> > >
> > > -john
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Phsst" <phsst@xxxx>
> > > To: <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > Sent: Sunday, November 23, 2003 8:37 PM
> > > Subject: [amibroker] StoRSI... was Re: Robustness
> > >
> > >
> > > > Sid, Owen & anyone else who is curious,
> > > >
> > > > I would suggest that you forget the StoRSI 8 8 3 code that Dave
> > > > posted. (I never saw or heard CedarCreekTrading's recommendations
> > > > regarding this trading system).
> > > >
> > > > Instead, you might want to take a look at the StoRSI code that
Jayson
> > > > provided in Message # 52370.
> > > >
> > > > Add your trade delays, initial equity, positionsize,
positionscore,
> > > > other personal preferences for backtesting (including
watchlist, etc.)
> > > > and other filters that make sense to you.
> > > >
> > > > I don't promise anything, but in my backtesting it showed promise
> > > > almost 'out of the box', plus it has the graphic support in IB for
> > > > fine tuning.
> > > >
> > > > (Be sure to email me and Jayson if you find the Grail <g>).
(((( AND
> > > > DON'T COME CRABBING IF YOU DON'T FIND THE GRAIL... OK? ))))
> > > >
> > > > And as far as Robustness is concerned... robustness is in the
eyes of
> > > > the beholder! (No more complicated than that)
> > > >
> > > > Regards,
> > > >
> > > > Phsst
> > > >
> > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Sidney Kaiser
<s9kaiser@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > > Too much tongue in cheek...what are you trying to say here?
> > > > > Sid
> > > > >
> > > > > At 10:32 PM 11/23/2003 -0500, you wrote:
> > > > >
> > > > > >Sidney Kaiser wrote:
> > > > > >
> > > > > > > Steve K's system is not a system at all but rather an
idea that
> > > > needs to
> > > > > >be
> > > > > > > fleshed out to turn it into a money maker. I made a few
passes
> > > > at it and
> > > > > > > never discovered the appropriate additions to turn it into a
> > > > winner, so I
> > > > > > > can understand Dave M's frustration with his attempts to
wring
> > > > some profit
> > > > > > > out of the idea.
> > > > > >
> > > > > >[Keep trying. It's not that hard.]
> > > > > >
> > > > > >Er, scratch that. It's impossible. Forget you ever read it.
> > > > > >
> > > > > >Owen Davies
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
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