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Love your new website! Especially the part about backtesting over a
complete market cycle and robustness (excerpt from FAQs below). I
couldn't have said it better myself. However, you seem to have
changed your approach entirely between the making of your new website
and your post to Dave (relevant part also below). Personally, I much
prefer what's on the website, from content to tone.
EXCERPT: "By using the five-year regression model, securities are
back-tested across a complete market cycle. We believe that a
mechanical system must be robust enough to trade profitably through
trending and nontrending markets, regardless of bull or bear market
cycles. Each security selected meets this requirement."
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "CedarCreekTrading" <kernish@xxxx>
wrote:
<snip>
>What's more important: your historic examination of two outlying
>years [added: these were within the last 5], or the track record that
has been created by the system since >I supplied the approach?
>
> I'd suggest you save your criticism about what works and what
doesn't work until what works ... stops working. You are suggesting
that this approach sucks because you can't identify profits in some
backtesting. Really, give me a break. You keep backtesting for 2001
and 2002 and I'll keep using this "general" (I no longer use the term
robust for anything)timing indicator to supplement my trading ideas
and I will continue to "teach, talk, and trade".
<snip>
>
> Take care,
>
> Steve
> www.cedarcreektrading.com
>
>
>
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Dave Merrill
> To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Sent: Saturday, November 22, 2003 4:59 AM
> Subject: RE: [amibroker] Re: any karnish watchers out there? For
Steve
>
>
> steve, not only do I assume you've done it, but when you speak
about it as you have, I assume we'll like what we see if we do it
ourselves -- that's why you mentioned it. then I do try it, report
results that are less than stellar, and hear, "try this, try that".
>
> I don't mean to offend, or discourage teaching or the sharing of
ideas, not at all. but it's one thing to suggest that an idea might be
worth pursuing, in combination with a not-completely-specified set of
confirming indicators, stops, entrails, etc.. it's quite another to
show some great-looking charts and strongly imply that the single
indicator shown is profitable in and of itself, or with confirmation
from any old trend indicator you might have lying around.
>
> I know I need to do my own homework. I've been doing a great deal
of that, don't mind, find it interesting even. I'm just mystified by
the vibe that the actual numerical results I get from a system someone
else suggested aren't that great because of some problem with the way
I approach life in general, like some box I haven't thought my way out
of (my favorite). it's not the first time this has happened, so steve,
don't take my reaction personally.
>
> please don't misunderstand, I'm trying to learn, not put anyone
down, or their ideas. I very much appreciate the offerings from
everyone here, especially the more experienced traders and system
designers. I hope people will continue to share their ideas, and
comment on what gets posted.
>
> I also appreciate everyone's putting up with my ignorance, my
endless attempts to test and verify what gets said, and the periodic
intrusions of my inner brat, like this one. maybe it falls under the
category of failing to shut up if I don't have something nice to say,
but surely there are others out there wondering the same thing and not
saying so out of deference to greater expertise. or maybe not. maybe
everyone but me takes this ball and runs with it, all the way to the
bank, while I just continually miss the obvious. either way, hopefully
we'll all learn something by talking about it, or at least I will.
>
> dave
> I guess the point is that some, rightly or wrongly, assume
you've
> already done this. If that's the case what kind of results have
you
> gotten (CAR, MDD, UI) OOS ? Maybe I'm nuts but to me a
Stochastic
> RSI, whether it's coupled with a trend indicator or stops of a
> variety of types etc. is well INSIDE the box.
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "CedarCreekTrading"
<kernish@xxxx>
> wrote:
> > Dave,
> >
> > No problem....I'd suggest that you mix and match stops, trend
> identifiers and triggers. I not suggesting that you
over-optimize (a
> rather tired and elusive topic on this forum), but, please
think
> outside the box. The important point is: there are certain
momentum
> oscillators that time you into trend retracements that are very
> accurate. Pick one.
> >
> > Then, decide on some type of trend identification. Only take
> trades in that direction.
> >
> > Then, conjure a stop strategy...to protect your position and
> pocketbook.
> >
> > And finally, use something other than a momentum oscillator to
time
> you out. Momentum Oscillators will never capture a good move,
> running in the direction of the trend, without leaving a lot
> of "cheese" on the table.
> >
> > I think you can see that this is a bit different that just
buying
> and selling at the trigger levels. The StoRSI has, and will
always,
> be a very decent timing device to position you into trend
> retracements.
> >
> > Take care,
> >
> > Steve
>
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