RE: [amibroker] Wedges

["Louw-Roux Coetzer" <louwcoetzer@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Hi 
there !
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For 
those on a similar quest for Chart Pattern Statistics... I found this nice page 
referring to Bulkowski's book ... with examples and stats to boot...quite 
nice
 
<A 
href="">http://www.coveredcallswins.com/chartpatterns/BestPatterns.html#bearish
 
Here 
are two links to "Candle Cheat Sheets" - very handy quick reference to keep near 
the PC ...
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<A 
href="">http://www.masterdata.com/CandleStick/BullCheatSheet.htm    
( Bullish Patterns )
<A 
href="">http://www.masterdata.com/CandleStick/BearCheatSheet.htm   
( Bearish Patterns )
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Happy 
trading !
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
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Louw 
Coetzer
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  <FONT face=Tahoma 
  size=2>-----Original Message-----From: wavemechanic 
  [mailto:wd78@xxxxxxxxxxxx]Sent: 20 November 2003 07:48 
  PMTo: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re: [amibroker] 
  Wedges
   
  <BLOCKQUOTE 
  >
    ----- Original Message ----- 
    <DIV 
    >From: 
    <A title=louwcoetzer@xxxxxxxxxxxxx 
    href="">Louw-Roux Coetzer 
    To: <A title=amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
    href="">amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
    Sent: Thursday, November 20, 2003 10:25 
    AM
    Subject: RE: [amibroker] Wedges
    
    Hi 
    there WM
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    <FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
    size=2>Thanks for this, it was exactly what I was looking for... In fact the 
    price actually broke through the bottom resistance line this afternoon 
    during trade...Am I correct to interpret the Stats by saying that when the 
    price breaks down, the failure rate of it being wrong is 10% by theory of 
    course ?
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    For 
    an upward sloped expanding wedge, the statistics for the failure rate once 
    a downside breakout has occurred is 6%.  As for online 
    resources, I don't know of any, but perhaps a Google search will turn up 
    something.  Beyond that there is Bulkowski's 
    book.
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    I 
    have found info on the so called "Megaphone" but not really a "Wedge" 
    pattern like this one...Could you maybe point me to a online source of 
    similar definitions like the one you have posted...
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    <FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
    size=2>Kind regards and thank you once more !
    <FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
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    <FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
    size=2>Louw Coetzer
    
      <FONT face=Tahoma 
      size=2>-----Original Message-----From: wavemechanic 
      [mailto:wd78@xxxxxxxxxxxx]Sent: 20 November 2003 02:46 
      PMTo: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re: 
      [amibroker] Wedges
      Louw:
       
      Here is Bulkowski's criteria (abbreviated) for a 
      broadening rising wedge:
       
      Characteristics:
       
      1.    Shape - megaphone, tilted 
      up, price action contained within two up-sloping 
      trendlines.
      2.    Trendlines - top trendline 
      has a steeper upward slope and neither is 
horizontal.
      3.    Touches - there should be 
      at least 3 touches of each trendline.
      4.    Volume - Irregular with 
      tendency to rise over length of formation.
      5.    Premature breakout - rare 
      and a close below the lower trendline is usually a real 
      breakout.
       
      Statistics (157 in 500 stocks 
      '91-'96):
       
      1.    Number of reversals - 
      139
      2.    Failure rate - 
      24%
      3.    Failure rate for downside 
      breakout - 6%
      4.    Most likely decline - 
      10%
      5.    % meeting or exceeding 
      measured target - 61%
      6.    Average formation length - 
      116 days
      7.    Days to low for successful 
      formation - 95 days
      8.    Partial rise before 
      breakout - 84%
      9.    Partial rise for all 
      formations - 48%
      10.  Partial rise not at formation end 
      - 18%
      11.   % with rising volume - 
      59%
       
      Bill
       
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