|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
I agree. I might add that there is also this "hope" factor in
addition to this "greed" and "fear" factors, an equally important one
at that. for e.g., traders hope that the previous uptrend will
continue on a pullback (dip) or the previous downtrend will continue
on a pullback (rally). The great challenge in prediction of the
future price is in measuring these factors accurately, but I hope we
humans can do it faster and more accurately with the help of
computers. But, if we measure these factors erroneously with the
help of computers, then it just accelerates the mess. Anything we
want to measure accurately, one must express it numerically. Also,
when the chart pattern forms, it is really a bit too late, as
everybody elso would also have seen it. So, I really do not have
much appreciation for charts as such. In real time, there is no
ideal chart pattern, and no good or bad pattern to help you -- only
chart patterns with a higher or lower value filling a need...
rgds, Pal
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Jayson" <jcasavant@xxxx> wrote:
> Louw,
>
> To understand market behavior we must first understand exactly what
the bars
> on a chart are telling us.These bars are a road map which offer
insight into
> the markets underlying psychology. Markets are fueled by 2 simple
human
> emotions.......Fear and Greed. When a market is rising there are
simply more
> Greedy participants then there are Fearful players. The buyers
believe that
> they will have the opportunity to sell their shares for more than
they have
> paid for them and so Greed instructs them to hold on or buy more.
After a
> time the Greedy become Fearful that the Market will try to take
some of
> their money. As this Fear takes hold the holders begin to sell.
This selling
> in turn fuels Fear in other holders who in turn begin to sell
shares.
>
> When volatility is high it is simply because there is little
consensus
> amongst the players. The Greedy are confident and so are the
Fearful. In
> your example you have the Greedy pushing the stock up but , as
seen by the
> increasing volatility, the Fearful are growing more afraid. IMO
this is a
> scary time to get involved. If the Fearful gain control it will get
ugly
> fast. In your example you will note that the sell offs happened
quickly
> while the march forward seemed more orderly. This would indicate to
me that
> the fearful are gaining control while their own greed has simply
not yet
> allowed them to sell with vengeance. Instead I prefer to see the
battle take
> place with decreasing volatility. Once one side eventually asserts
itself
> then the volatility will increase. At that point (the break of a
converging
> triangle for example) it is far easier to get in on the right side
of the
> trade. This process is repeated in pattern after pattern. Think of a
> cup/handle. The buyers push the stock up the right hand side only
to be met
> by a fearful few who form the handle as volatility decreases. Then
the
> buyers gain control fueled with volume pushing the stock higher on
increased
> volatility and the break out fuels more optimism and higher prices.
>
> Trying to put statistical probabilities to price patterns is
challenging at
> best and certainly at the mercy of the particular data set studied.
People
> make the markets trade and their emotions drive their behavior. As
technical
> analysts I think perhaps we often try to make things more
complicated then
> they need to be.
>
> my 2 cents FWIW
>
> Regards,
> Jayson
>
> From: Louw-Roux Coetzer
> To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Sent: Thursday, November 20, 2003 3:46 AM
> Subject: [amibroker] Wedges
>
>
> Hi there all,
>
> Just a easy question that is confusing me a wee bit ....What
is the
> technical significance of a "Rising Widening Wedge" against & with a
> trend...see pic for example...is it the same as a "Narrowing
Wedge " with &
> against a trend ?
>
> Kind regards
>
> Louw Coetzer
>
>
>
>
> Send BUG REPORTS to bugs@xxxx
> Send SUGGESTIONS to suggest@xxxx
> -----------------------------------------
> Post AmiQuote-related messages ONLY to:
amiquote@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> (Web page: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amiquote/messages/)
> --------------------------------------------
> Check group FAQ at:
> http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/files/groupfaq.html
>
> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of
Service.
>
>
>
> Send BUG REPORTS to bugs@xxxx
> Send SUGGESTIONS to suggest@xxxx
> -----------------------------------------
> Post AmiQuote-related messages ONLY to: amiquote@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> (Web page: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amiquote/messages/)
> --------------------------------------------
> Check group FAQ at:
> http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/files/groupfaq.html
>
> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of
Service.
>
>
>
> Send BUG REPORTS to bugs@xxxx
> Send SUGGESTIONS to suggest@xxxx
> -----------------------------------------
> Post AmiQuote-related messages ONLY to: amiquote@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> (Web page: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amiquote/messages/)
> --------------------------------------------
> Check group FAQ at:
> http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/files/groupfaq.html
>
> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of
Service.
>
>
> Yahoo! Groups Sponsor
> ADVERTISEMENT
>
>
>
>
> Send BUG REPORTS to bugs@xxxx
> Send SUGGESTIONS to suggest@xxxx
> -----------------------------------------
> Post AmiQuote-related messages ONLY to: amiquote@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> (Web page: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amiquote/messages/)
> --------------------------------------------
> Check group FAQ at:
> http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/files/groupfaq.html
>
> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.
------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ---------------------~-->
Buy Ink Cartridges or Refill Kits for your HP, Epson, Canon or Lexmark
Printer at MyInks.com. Free s/h on orders $50 or more to the US & Canada.
http://www.c1tracking.com/l.asp?cid=5511
http://us.click.yahoo.com/mOAaAA/3exGAA/qnsNAA/GHeqlB/TM
---------------------------------------------------------------------~->
Send BUG REPORTS to bugs@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Send SUGGESTIONS to suggest@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
-----------------------------------------
Post AmiQuote-related messages ONLY to: amiquote@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
(Web page: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amiquote/messages/)
--------------------------------------------
Check group FAQ at: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/files/groupfaq.html
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
|