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<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
<A title=louwcoetzer@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Louw-Roux Coetzer
To: <A title=amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Thursday, November 20, 2003 10:25
AM
Subject: RE: [amibroker] Wedges
Hi
there WM
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>Thanks for this, it was exactly what I was looking for... In fact the
price actually broke through the bottom resistance line this afternoon during
trade...Am I correct to interpret the Stats by saying that when the price
breaks down, the failure rate of it being wrong is 10% by theory of course
?
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>
For an
upward sloped expanding wedge, the statistics for the failure rate once
a downside breakout has occurred is 6%. As for online
resources, I don't know of any, but perhaps a Google search will turn up
something. Beyond that there is Bulkowski's
book.
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
I
have found info on the so called "Megaphone" but not really a "Wedge" pattern
like this one...Could you maybe point me to a online source of similar
definitions like the one you have posted...
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
Kind
regards and thank you once more !
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
Louw
Coetzer
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: wavemechanic
[mailto:wd78@xxxxxxxxxxxx]Sent: 20 November 2003 02:46
PMTo: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re:
[amibroker] Wedges
Louw:
Here is Bulkowski's criteria (abbreviated) for a
broadening rising wedge:
Characteristics:
1. Shape - megaphone, tilted up,
price action contained within two up-sloping
trendlines.
2. Trendlines - top trendline
has a steeper upward slope and neither is horizontal.
3. Touches - there should be at
least 3 touches of each trendline.
4. Volume - Irregular with
tendency to rise over length of formation.
5. Premature breakout - rare and
a close below the lower trendline is usually a real
breakout.
Statistics (157 in 500 stocks
'91-'96):
1. Number of reversals -
139
2. Failure rate -
24%
3. Failure rate for downside
breakout - 6%
4. Most likely decline -
10%
5. % meeting or exceeding
measured target - 61%
6. Average formation length -
116 days
7. Days to low for successful
formation - 95 days
8. Partial rise before breakout
- 84%
9. Partial rise for all
formations - 48%
10. Partial rise not at formation end -
18%
11. % with rising volume -
59%
Bill
----- Original Message -----
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
<DIV
>From:
<A title=louwcoetzer@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Louw-Roux Coetzer
To: <A
title=amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Thursday, November 20, 2003
3:46 AM
Subject: [amibroker] Wedges
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>Hi there all,
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>Just a easy question that is confusing me a wee bit ....What is the
technical significance of a "Rising Widening Wedge" against & with a
trend...see pic for example...is it the same as a "Narrowing Wedge " with
& against a trend ?
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>Kind regards
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>Louw Coetzer
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