RE: [amibroker] Wedges

["Louw-Roux Coetzer" <louwcoetzer@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Hi 
there WM
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Thanks 
for this, it was exactly what I was looking for... In fact the price actually 
broke through the bottom resistance line this afternoon during trade...Am I 
correct to interpret the Stats by saying that when the price breaks down, the 
failure rate of it being wrong is 10% by theory of course ?
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I have 
found info on the so called "Megaphone" but not really a "Wedge" pattern like 
this one...Could you maybe point me to a online source of similar definitions 
like the one you have posted...
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Kind 
regards and thank you once more !
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
size=2> 
Louw 
Coetzer

  <FONT face=Tahoma 
  size=2>-----Original Message-----From: wavemechanic 
  [mailto:wd78@xxxxxxxxxxxx]Sent: 20 November 2003 02:46 
  PMTo: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re: [amibroker] 
  Wedges
  Louw:
   
  Here is Bulkowski's criteria (abbreviated) for a 
  broadening rising wedge:
   
  Characteristics:
   
  1.    Shape - megaphone, tilted up, 
  price action contained within two up-sloping trendlines.
  2.    Trendlines - top trendline has 
  a steeper upward slope and neither is horizontal.
  3.    Touches - there should be at 
  least 3 touches of each trendline.
  4.    Volume - Irregular with 
  tendency to rise over length of formation.
  5.    Premature breakout - rare and a 
  close below the lower trendline is usually a real 
  breakout.
   
  Statistics (157 in 500 stocks 
  '91-'96):
   
  1.    Number of reversals - 
  139
  2.    Failure rate - 
  24%
  3.    Failure rate for downside 
  breakout - 6%
  4.    Most likely decline - 
  10%
  5.    % meeting or exceeding measured 
  target - 61%
  6.    Average formation length - 116 
  days
  7.    Days to low for successful 
  formation - 95 days
  8.    Partial rise before breakout - 
  84%
  9.    Partial rise for all formations 
  - 48%
  10.  Partial rise not at formation end - 
  18%
  11.   % with rising volume - 
  59%
   
  Bill
   
   
  ----- Original Message ----- 
  <BLOCKQUOTE 
  >
    <DIV 
    >From: 
    <A title=louwcoetzer@xxxxxxxxxxxxx 
    href="">Louw-Roux Coetzer 
    To: <A title=amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
    href="">amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
    Sent: Thursday, November 20, 2003 3:46 
    AM
    Subject: [amibroker] Wedges
    
    Hi 
    there all, 
    <FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
    size=2> 
    <FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
    size=2>Just a easy question that is confusing me a wee bit ....What is the 
    technical significance of a "Rising Widening Wedge" against & with a 
    trend...see pic for example...is it the same as a "Narrowing Wedge " with 
    & against a trend ?
    <FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
    size=2> 
    <FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
    size=2>Kind regards
    <FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
    size=2> 
    <FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
    size=2>Louw Coetzer
     
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