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Yuki,
I admire your ability to articulate the reasoning behind your trading.
Unfortunately, I operate at a level which is a bit above
sub-conscience but below the level that you seem to operate at... but
never the less I muddle through it.
While I occasionally take short positions, I primarily focus upon
either being long or being 'out'. I 'got out' late Friday because mkt
action did not seem to favor long positions. Then your synopsis of the
Japanese mkt action last night made me think that the U.S. mkt was
going to be in for a rough day today which suited me just fine.
And Sure-Nuff.... Late today, mkt action 'based out' after a serious
down day, so I went long the Q's at close.
I hope we see the same bounce here Tues morning that you saw on the
225. But I won't be holding more than a few hours because support
levels were violated today and I look for further sell offs after a
short bounce.
Like you, I don't mind being on the sidelines while I wait for the
right setups.
While the 225 action doesn't always signal what is going to happen in
the US mkts, sometimes major price actions on the 225 are good
predictors of what to expect here in the US for at least brief periods
of time.
My biggest problem with operating slightly above 'sub-consious' levels
is that I have a real problem trying to quantify those levels in AB
backtests! Wouldn't it be great to write your backtests so that they
instinctively shut down at the same time that you do in real life?
Anyway... it's late.
Take care.
Phsst
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Yuki Taga <yukitaga@xxxx> wrote:
> Well we are bouncing today after several fakes in both directions.
> With 15 minutes left we are on the highs, up about 1 percent basis
> the 225, but only about 0.25 percent basis the broader TOPIX.
>
> It looks like no conviction today, just futures driven; the Osaka
> Boyz apparently want it up today on the close, and nobody can fight
> them. I'm figuring that if it's a 'V', it's trouble ahead. I want to
> see a 'U', which gives me a lot more confidence. This 'V' could go a
> ways of course.
>
> Yuki (who did laundry instead of going to the mountains today; it's
> going to rain for a couple days starting tomorrow) ^_^
>
> P.S. I read the financial press today, something I try NOT to do very
> often, and what a joke. Last night it was all about how this market
> has been mortally wounded, and will not be challenging the highs any
> time soon. This morning (maybe after some phone calls from
> government officials?) it was all about how day traders and
> unsophisticated (me?) margin traders caused all this, and how it will
> all be resolved very quickly as they are washed out and foreign
> institutions bargain hunt.
>
> Oh?
>
> Institutions (foreign anyway, which have been the fuel for the
> rocket) became net sellers on 11/6, and have been net sellers every
> day but one since then. They are net sellers for the entire month of
> November. They were heavier sellers today than yesterday.
>
> Now I remember why I don't read these fish wraps very often.
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