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Hi Tomasz,
Tuesday, November 18, 2003, 1:18:48 AM, you wrote:
TJ> No, neither I nor quanttrader are saying that prices
TJ> are pure random (white noise).
TJ> We are just saying that there is random component
TJ> in price movement.
I'm not even an math person, but this is clear to me. I have always
felt that the shorter the term, the more random the price action, and
that randomness tends to diminish with increasing time frames. That's
why I don't day trade very much at all. I find intraday to be
*extremely* random, or manipulated, or both. The only way I survive
in my day trading, I think, is by only doing it when I am pretty sure
some manipulation is taking place, and then trying to piggyback on
that.
If one looks at the rise of markets around the world over the past 6
months, and calls that random, I would call the assertion crazy. But
any one of the daily bars that made up that rise has a lot of
randomness in it, I'd say. And 5-minute bars, or 60-second bars? Give
me a break. ^_^
Yuki
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