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Yuki,
In the N100 market, the serious Sell signals appeared on Nov10 Close
[not earlier]
If they were short signals also is a matter of further discussion.
As for the [ambiguous] H&S, it is out of any statistics the last
months, even if it is fully formatted...
All my !!!!!!! if you "saw" and trade the last leg before the
formation !!!!
Dimitris Tsokakis
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Yuki Taga <yukitaga@xxxx> wrote:
> Hi Bob,
>
> Saturday, November 15, 2003, 3:10:32 AM, you wrote:
>
> BJ> FYI Any comment, Yuki?
>
> Sure.
>
> I put on shorts serious shorts 6 days ago, the first real serious
> shorts I've done probably in 3 months. I saw this (H&S) forming
> immediately, and I've played the right shoulder both up and down
with
> great success. Monday shorts covered on the open Tuesday made the
> entire month in one night last week. These were my first serious
> shorts in months -- I'd almost abandoned shorting since May, with a
> brief exception or two, none of much consequence.
>
> The neck line will be violated *hard* on Monday's open. Chicago
took
> our futures 150 or more below the neckline last night (Tokyo time),
> and that's about where we will open. The measuring aspect of the H&S
> might work out just about right, too. That is to say 1,000 off the
> 10,200 level is surely doable. I doubt if it gets completely down
to
> that level, but it might; and anyone who thinks there is no chance
of
> it is way too sanguine. I want to buy around 9,600, and I surely
> expect to see that level. Between 9,400 and 9,600 might qualify as a
> "grail" buy, *if* the recovery story in the US holds, and *if* the
US
> dollar doesn't fall off a cliff, neither of which are givens in my
> book.
>
> I might buy tentatively at 9,800, too. I ain't buying anything right
> here; this is the "that's where it held before; that's where it will
> hold again" level for the suckers. Ninety-two hundred would begin to
> scare the hell out of everyone, so that indeed might be the target.
> ^_- I would buy there to hold a while, if we see it; a bad holiday
> spending season in the US (worse than expected, even if
anticipations
> turn down) could get us there.
>
> The pullback in late July and August was almost satisfying in terms
> of level, but not at all satisfying to me in terms of time. They
> they did exactly the same stunt in late September, with an even less
> satisfying dip and immediate rebound, as this thing got frothy
beyond
> the pale. (Hey, that's what markets do; and if you think the prices
> that Japanese banks are selling for compared to what they were
> selling for 6 months ago isn't froth, I have many bridges for sale.)
> So, a lot of the retail people who have been sucked in now are
> probably looking for a bounce here. They are the ones likely to get
> bounced, right along with the other less nimble who entered on the
> right shoulder, and those still holding from the head.
>
> Already, there is the beginning of massive pain on the retail/small,
> margined investor side. Have a look at long/short balances on
margin
> in Tokyo, realize that these latest stats are about a week old or
> more, and then realize that margin traders, by and large, are
> suddenly about 75 meters down with about 10 seconds of oxygen left.
> There is going to be some long margin liquidation next week on pain
> of collateral call, and it may get out of hand a bit.
The "generals"
> are not usually in the business of bailing out weak, margined longs.
> ^^_^^
>
> Needless to say, the US market is blowing its own bubbles again
right
> now, IMHO. It's hard to say which is going to lead the other lower,
> but it's a very interesting question. In fact, oddly, I was
thinking
> of asking this very question in an original thread. ^_^ This week,
> the Japanese "generals" seem to know which way the US is heading one
> day early. That's not always the case of course, but it has been as
> of late. Or are the US "generals" just following? ^^_^^
>
> As we all know though, markets overshoot in both directions.
> Expecting a round number like 10,000 to hold, especially when it's
> been crisscrossed so many times in the recent past, is likely to be
a
> sucker's bet. I'd pick a number below that which I might expect to
> hold (my pick would be ~9600 give or take), and then add the
> overshoot factor to it (which would make me think I can buy 200 to
> 400 points lower, just as the last margined longs are asphyxiating.
> ^^_^^
>
> Remember, we have 3-1 leverage on equities here. A lot of folks
> underestimate the downside risk. They may be about ready to get
> educated.
>
> All of this only means (to me) that we are entering or are in a
> correction phase right now. I suspect long will be the place to be
> when it ends, but I think it may be longer and deeper than some may
> be ready for. There simply hasn't been one in the US, really, since
> this rally got underway. You can't just "walk off" overbought time
> after time after time. Eventually you get a good scare, and we all
> are due for one I think.
>
> Best,
>
> Yuki
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