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Yuki,
the humble T/A H&S is posted at
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/message/52028
When you speak for H&S, please explain that you speak for "bright
Yuki´s H&S detector" [or simply H&S!!!!!!!]
People reading your text may think that the T/A H&S was visible 6
bars ago and they will not understand that it was only your great,
rare [and impressive] vision.
Dimitris Tsokakis
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS" <TSOKAKIS@xxxx>
wrote:
> Yuki,
> In the N100 market, the serious Sell signals appeared on Nov10
Close
> [not earlier]
> If they were short signals also is a matter of further discussion.
> As for the [ambiguous] H&S, it is out of any statistics the last
> months, even if it is fully formatted...
> All my !!!!!!! if you "saw" and trade the last leg before the
> formation !!!!
> Dimitris Tsokakis
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Yuki Taga <yukitaga@xxxx> wrote:
> > Hi Bob,
> >
> > Saturday, November 15, 2003, 3:10:32 AM, you wrote:
> >
> > BJ> FYI Any comment, Yuki?
> >
> > Sure.
> >
> > I put on shorts serious shorts 6 days ago, the first real serious
> > shorts I've done probably in 3 months. I saw this (H&S) forming
> > immediately, and I've played the right shoulder both up and down
> with
> > great success. Monday shorts covered on the open Tuesday made the
> > entire month in one night last week. These were my first serious
> > shorts in months -- I'd almost abandoned shorting since May, with
a
> > brief exception or two, none of much consequence.
> >
> > The neck line will be violated *hard* on Monday's open. Chicago
> took
> > our futures 150 or more below the neckline last night (Tokyo
time),
> > and that's about where we will open. The measuring aspect of the
H&S
> > might work out just about right, too. That is to say 1,000 off
the
> > 10,200 level is surely doable. I doubt if it gets completely
down
> to
> > that level, but it might; and anyone who thinks there is no
chance
> of
> > it is way too sanguine. I want to buy around 9,600, and I surely
> > expect to see that level. Between 9,400 and 9,600 might qualify
as a
> > "grail" buy, *if* the recovery story in the US holds, and *if*
the
> US
> > dollar doesn't fall off a cliff, neither of which are givens in my
> > book.
> >
> > I might buy tentatively at 9,800, too. I ain't buying anything
right
> > here; this is the "that's where it held before; that's where it
will
> > hold again" level for the suckers. Ninety-two hundred would begin
to
> > scare the hell out of everyone, so that indeed might be the
target.
> > ^_- I would buy there to hold a while, if we see it; a bad
holiday
> > spending season in the US (worse than expected, even if
> anticipations
> > turn down) could get us there.
> >
> > The pullback in late July and August was almost satisfying in
terms
> > of level, but not at all satisfying to me in terms of time. They
> > they did exactly the same stunt in late September, with an even
less
> > satisfying dip and immediate rebound, as this thing got frothy
> beyond
> > the pale. (Hey, that's what markets do; and if you think the
prices
> > that Japanese banks are selling for compared to what they were
> > selling for 6 months ago isn't froth, I have many bridges for
sale.)
> > So, a lot of the retail people who have been sucked in now are
> > probably looking for a bounce here. They are the ones likely to
get
> > bounced, right along with the other less nimble who entered on the
> > right shoulder, and those still holding from the head.
> >
> > Already, there is the beginning of massive pain on the
retail/small,
> > margined investor side. Have a look at long/short balances on
> margin
> > in Tokyo, realize that these latest stats are about a week old or
> > more, and then realize that margin traders, by and large, are
> > suddenly about 75 meters down with about 10 seconds of oxygen
left.
> > There is going to be some long margin liquidation next week on
pain
> > of collateral call, and it may get out of hand a bit.
> The "generals"
> > are not usually in the business of bailing out weak, margined
longs.
> > ^^_^^
> >
> > Needless to say, the US market is blowing its own bubbles again
> right
> > now, IMHO. It's hard to say which is going to lead the other
lower,
> > but it's a very interesting question. In fact, oddly, I was
> thinking
> > of asking this very question in an original thread. ^_^ This
week,
> > the Japanese "generals" seem to know which way the US is heading
one
> > day early. That's not always the case of course, but it has been
as
> > of late. Or are the US "generals" just following? ^^_^^
> >
> > As we all know though, markets overshoot in both directions.
> > Expecting a round number like 10,000 to hold, especially when it's
> > been crisscrossed so many times in the recent past, is likely to
be
> a
> > sucker's bet. I'd pick a number below that which I might expect to
> > hold (my pick would be ~9600 give or take), and then add the
> > overshoot factor to it (which would make me think I can buy 200 to
> > 400 points lower, just as the last margined longs are
asphyxiating.
> > ^^_^^
> >
> > Remember, we have 3-1 leverage on equities here. A lot of folks
> > underestimate the downside risk. They may be about ready to get
> > educated.
> >
> > All of this only means (to me) that we are entering or are in a
> > correction phase right now. I suspect long will be the place to
be
> > when it ends, but I think it may be longer and deeper than some
may
> > be ready for. There simply hasn't been one in the US, really,
since
> > this rally got underway. You can't just "walk off" overbought
time
> > after time after time. Eventually you get a good scare, and we
all
> > are due for one I think.
> >
> > Best,
> >
> > Yuki
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