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This December Light Crude Oil future [and its previous] uses
to react below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
and it is very sensitive to RSI wedges [symmetrical or
not].
These observations, together with the Stochastic [and MACD]
divergences may give interesting Entry/Exit signals,
especially when many other indicators are neutral or
ambiguous.
The changes of the trend are sharp, any moving average pattern
should be excluded
[Last March2003 the cross(MA(C,30),MA(C,20)) was confirmed
near the ...end of the $30 to $25 decline !!!]
We need very fast MAs, we even need to anticipate an MA
crossover and this will give some false signals.
I have posted last July [and I use in daily basis] the
Prediction series for various MA, EMA, DEMA crosovers.
[message #44790 and others]
CL futures are at the edge, they need
p=3, k=5, ie to predict a Cross(MA(C,3),MA(C,5)) and this pressure
may give excellent [almost unique] signals together with the
false ones.
// MA cross Prediction , July 2003
p=3;MAp=MA(C,p);k=5;MAk=MA(C,k);TC=(p*(k-1)*MA(C,k-1)-k*(p-1)*MA(C,p-1))/(k-p);DescCrossPrediction=Cross(TC,C);AscCrossPrediction=Cross(C,TC);ExpectMAcross=DescCrossPrediction
OR AscCrossPrediction;Confirmed=Cross(MAk,MAp) OR
Cross(MAp,MAk);UR=2*HHV(ROC(C,1),500);LR=2*LLV(ROC(C,1),500);Ucoeff=1+UR/100;Lcoeff=1+LR/100;Filter=TC<Lcoeff*C
OR
TC>Ucoeff*C;AddColumn(MAp,"MAp");AddColumn(MAk,"MAk");Plot(C,"",41*Filter+1,64);Plot(MAp,"",5,1);Plot(MAk,"",4,1);bars=BarsSince(Cross(MAp,MAk)
OR Cross(MAk,MAp));expect=NOT(Filter);Title=Name()+" ,
"+WriteIf(expect AND NOT(expectMAcross) AND NOT(Confirmed) AND bars>3 AND
TC<C,"EXPECT a bearish MAcross SOON","")+WriteIf(expect AND
NOT(expectMAcross) AND NOT(Confirmed) AND bars>3 AND TC>C,"EXPECT a
bullish MAcross SOON","")+WriteIf(DescCrossPrediction,"EXPECT a bearish
MAcross TOMORROW","")+WriteIf(AscCrossPrediction,"EXPECT a bullish MAcross
TOMORROW","")+WriteIf(Cross(MAp,MAk)," , Bullish
MAcross","")+WriteIf(Cross(MAk,MAp)," , Bearish
MAcross","");PlotShapes(shapeUpArrow*AscCrossPrediction,colorBrightGreen);PlotShapes(shapeDownArrow*DescCrossPrediction,colorRed);
The title of Nov3 was "Expect a Bullish MA cross tomorrow"
[green arrow, point B]
The very next day, Nov4, we had an already confirmed MAcross
[the statistics of the prediction are good in the pat history
of this future], a completed Fibonacci 61.8% retracement
and an RSI symmetric wedge right at the edge.
The reward of the [still risky] Buy at Nov5 Open needs no
comments.
On the other side, the MA signal at point A was false, but
there were no Fibonacci or RSI confirmations.
The same combined pattern occurred on Sept23.
It is necessary to check the previous RSI trendlines with
:
/*HISTORICAL TRENDLINES and BREAKOUTS*/x = Cum(1);per
= 1;s1=RSI();s11=RSI();pS = TroughBars( s1, per, 1 ) ==
0;endt=SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pS, x
,1));startt=SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pS, x ,2));dtS
=endt-startt;endS = SelectedValue((ValueWhen( pS, s1,1) ));startS =
SelectedValue(( ValueWhen( pS, s1 ,2)));aS = (endS-startS)/dtS;bS =
endS;trendlineS = aS * ( x -endt ) + bS;// SUPPORT LINEpR = PeakBars(
s11, per, 1 ) == 0;endt1= SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pR, x,
1));startt1=SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pR, x, 2 ));dtR
=endt1-startt1;endR = SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pR, s11, 1 ) );startR =
SelectedValue( ValueWhen( pR, s11, 2 ));aR = (endR-startR)/dtR;bR =
endR;trendlineR = aR * ( x -endt1 ) + bR;// RESISTANCE LINE
first=Min(startt,startt1);Last=Max(endt,endt1);d=10;bullishbreakout=x>endt1
AND x<last+d AND Cross(s1,trendlineR);bearishbreakout=x>endt AND
x<last+d AND
Cross(trendlineS,s1);Plot(RSI(),"RSI",IIf(bullishbreakout,colorBrightGreen,IIf(bearishbreakout,colorRed,colorBlack)),8);Plot(IIf(x>=first
-d AND
x<=Last+d,trendlineS,-1e10),"Support",colorBrightGreen,1);Plot(IIf(x>=first-d
AND
x<=Last+d,trendlineR,-1e10),"Resistance",colorRed,1);
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