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Jayson,
Just for the dialogue, I didnīt say that.
Since I am already 80% invested [in BEAS, CLZ03 and the mechanical
system], I do not risk the rest 20% for the nice CSCO opportunity.
Next time...
Dimitris Tsokakis
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Jayson" <jcasavant@xxxx> wrote:
> Dimitris,
> please do not misconstrue my comment as a way to disparage your
work. By
> "Easy" I do not mean to imply that it is not complex only that the
math can
> be applied and proven but the trader psychology and their reaction
to
> earning news/fluff cannot. You are a braver man than I to hold ~80%
of your
> portfolio in a stock preparing to make an earnings announcement. I
am happy
> for you that you were on the right side
>
> Regards,
> Jayson
> -----Original Message-----
> From: DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS [mailto:TSOKAKIS@x...]
> Sent: Thursday, November 06, 2003 12:55 PM
> To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: [amibroker] Re: Historical trendlines
>
>
> Jayson,
> I will not agree at all.
> Looking at the math is not easy.
> The reason is simple, when the maths are applied.
> I was in front of a pure symmetrical converging trendlines formation
> two days ago in Light Crude RSI.
> The maths equally anticipate the bullish or bearish breakout, since
> we were only 1 bar before the fact [far from the office now, can not
> post the gif...]
> I was waiting, thinking and checking an ocean of parameters without
> any "robust" output.
> We talked that much these days for robust solutions and, if I'm not
> wrong, there was a spirit to avoid following anything not robust.
> Life is different, Crude oil is tough, the symmetric wedge was
there,
> it was more than real, it was fully formated and 1 bar before the
> unavoidable breakout. This is the real thing, you can not turn the
> face to reality and search for safe places, there are no safe
corners
> in the market, you should be there to make or to break, just like a
> binary PMPB switch [push-to-make-push-to-break].
> Now I know that it was 70% emotional/30% technical to select the
Long
> side. The next day was great, oil was going higher and higher,
> everybody was speaking for the great news, many "analysts" were
> talking and talking with the words "after", "because", and similar
> silly things. I was on the right side, BUT, I know it was ONLY 30%
> technical and I was not talking to anybody and I didn't want to talk
> to anybody.
> CSCO parallel breakout was more accessible I think.
> Dimitris Tsokakis
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Jayson" <jcasavant@xxxx> wrote:
> > "This is not the technical part, it is closer to the fundamentals
> > [AFL N/A !!]"
> >
> > And yet it is difficult to avoid the collision of both worlds.
> Looking at
> > the math is far easier than looking at the psychology that
actually
> drives
> > the market. It's those damn people that make trading so
> challenging....
> >
> >
> >
> > Regards,
> > Jayson
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS [mailto:TSOKAKIS@x...]
> > Sent: Thursday, November 06, 2003 11:02 AM
> > To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: [amibroker] Re: Historical trendlines
> >
> >
> > This is not the technical part, it is closer to the fundamentals
> > [AFL N/A !!]
> > The pre-market activity was interesting.
> > I am ~80% invested this period to follow this [interesting]
> breakout.
> > [I don't like so much the >75%]
> > Anyway...
> > Dimitris Tsokakis
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Jayson" <jcasavant@xxxx> wrote:
> > > Dimitris,
> > > the challenge (for me) is to trust the last few break out days
of
> > CSCO as
> > > true strength or simply pre earnings posturing. In this case it
> > certainly
> > > would have been beneficial to trust the line studies. The
previous
> > release
> > > of earnings was not so kind......Sooo many pieces to the puzzle
> > >
> > > Regards,
> > > Jayson
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: Dimitris Tsokakis [mailto:TSOKAKIS@x...]
> > > Sent: Thursday, November 06, 2003 8:37 AM
> > > To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Subject: [amibroker] Historical trendlines
> > >
> > >
> > > 8 bars ago CSCO broke the support trendline.
> > > 2 bars ago broke the resistance line in the new [parallel]
> channel.
> > > Since we can not remember everything, it is better to use the
> > memory of the
> > > /*HISTORICAL TRENDLINES and BREAKOUTS*/
> > > x = Cum(1);
> > > per = 3;// CALIBRATE THE ZIG() SENSITIVITY
> > > s1=L;s11=H;
> > > pS = TroughBars( s1, per, 1 ) == 0;
> > > endt=SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pS, x ,1));
> > > startt=SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pS, x ,2));
> > > dtS =endt-startt;
> > > endS = SelectedValue((ValueWhen( pS, s1,1) ));
> > > startS = SelectedValue(( ValueWhen( pS, s1 ,2)));
> > > aS = (endS-startS)/dtS;bS = endS;
> > > trendlineS = aS * ( x -endt ) + bS;//SUPPORT LINE
> > > pR = PeakBars( s11, per, 1 ) == 0;
> > > endt1= SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pR, x, 1));
> > > startt1=SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pR, x, 2 ));
> > > dtR =endt1-startt1;
> > > endR = SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pR, s11, 1 ) );
> > > startR = SelectedValue( ValueWhen( pR, s11, 2 ));
> > > aR = (endR-startR)/dtR;bR = endR;
> > > trendlineR = aR * ( x -endt1 ) + bR;//RESISTANCE LINE
> > > first=Min(startt,startt1);Last=Max(endt,endt1);
> > > d=10;// INCREASE d TO EXTEND THE LINES
> > > bullishbreakout=x>endt1 AND x<last+d AND Cross(C,trendlineR);
> > > bearishbreakout=x>endt AND x<last+d AND Cross(trendlineS,C);
> > > Plot(C,"Close",IIf(bullishbreakout,colorBrightGreen,IIf
> > > (bearishbreakout,colorRed,colorBlack)),64);
> > > Plot(IIf(x>=first -d AND x<=Last+d,trendlineS,-
> > > 1e10),"Support",colorBrightGreen,1);
> > > Plot(IIf(x>=first-d AND x<=Last+d,trendlineR,-
> > > 1e10),"Resistance",colorRed,1);
> > >
> > > Just move your cursor to the left, it will help to study the
> recent
> > > behavior.
> > > The same procedure may be used for indicators [some slight per
> > changes are
> > > necessary]
> > >
> > > /*HISTORICAL TRENDLINES and BREAKOUTS for INDICATORS*/
> > > x = Cum(1);
> > > per = 1;// CALIBRATE THE ZIG() SENSITIVITY
> > > s1=RSI();s11=RSI();
> > > pS = TroughBars( s1, per, 1 ) == 0;
> > > endt=SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pS, x ,1));
> > > startt=SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pS, x ,2));
> > > dtS =endt-startt;
> > > endS = SelectedValue((ValueWhen( pS, s1,1) ));
> > > startS = SelectedValue(( ValueWhen( pS, s1 ,2)));
> > > aS = (endS-startS)/dtS;bS = endS;
> > > trendlineS = aS * ( x -endt ) + bS;//SUPPORT LINE
> > > pR = PeakBars( s11, per, 1 ) == 0;
> > > endt1= SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pR, x, 1));
> > > startt1=SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pR, x, 2 ));
> > > dtR =endt1-startt1;
> > > endR = SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pR, s11, 1 ) );
> > > startR = SelectedValue( ValueWhen( pR, s11, 2 ));
> > > aR = (endR-startR)/dtR;bR = endR;
> > > trendlineR = aR * ( x -endt1 ) + bR;//RESISTANCE LINE
> > > first=Min(startt,startt1);Last=Max(endt,endt1);
> > > d=10;// INCREASE d TO EXTEND THE LINES
> > > bullishbreakout=x>endt1 AND x<last+d AND Cross(s1,trendlineR);
> > > bearishbreakout=x>endt AND x<last+d AND Cross(trendlineS,s1);
> > > Plot(RSI(),"RSI",IIf(bullishbreakout,colorBrightGreen,IIf
> > > (bearishbreakout,colorRed,colorBlack)),8);
> > > Plot(IIf(x>=first -d AND x<=Last+d,trendlineS,-
> > > 1e10),"Support",colorBrightGreen,1);
> > > Plot(IIf(x>=first-d AND x<=Last+d,trendlineR,-
> > > 1e10),"Resistance",colorRed,1);
> > >
> > > It was VERY useful for CLZ03, two days ago.
> > > Dimitris Tsokakis
> > >
> > >
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