|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>Dimitris,
please
do not misconstrue my comment as a way to disparage your work. By "Easy" I do
not mean to imply that it is not complex only that the math can be applied and
proven but the trader psychology and their reaction to earning news/fluff
cannot. You are a braver man than I to hold ~80% of your portfolio in a stock
preparing to make an earnings announcement. I am happy for you that you were on
the right side
Regards,
Jayson
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS
[mailto:TSOKAKIS@xxxxxxxxx]Sent: Thursday, November 06, 2003 12:55
PMTo: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: [amibroker] Re:
Historical trendlinesJayson,I will not agree at
all.Looking at the math is not easy.The reason is simple, when the maths
are applied.I was in front of a pure symmetrical converging trendlines
formation two days ago in Light Crude RSI.The maths equally anticipate
the bullish or bearish breakout, since we were only 1 bar before the fact
[far from the office now, can not post the gif...]I was waiting,
thinking and checking an ocean of parameters without any "robust"
output.We talked that much these days for robust solutions and, if I'm not
wrong, there was a spirit to avoid following anything not robust.Life is
different, Crude oil is tough, the symmetric wedge was there, it was more
than real, it was fully formated and 1 bar before the unavoidable breakout.
This is the real thing, you can not turn the face to reality and search for
safe places, there are no safe corners in the market, you should be there to
make or to break, just like a binary PMPB switch
[push-to-make-push-to-break].Now I know that it was 70% emotional/30%
technical to select the Long side. The next day was great, oil was going
higher and higher, everybody was speaking for the great news, many
"analysts" were talking and talking with the words "after", "because", and
similar silly things. I was on the right side, BUT, I know it was ONLY 30%
technical and I was not talking to anybody and I didn't want to talk to
anybody.CSCO parallel breakout was more accessible I think.Dimitris
Tsokakis--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Jayson" <jcasavant@xxxx>
wrote:> "This is not the technical part, it is closer to the
fundamentals> [AFL N/A !!]"> > And yet it is difficult to
avoid the collision of both worlds. Looking at> the math is far
easier than looking at the psychology that actually drives> the
market. It's those damn people that make trading so challenging....>
> > > Regards,> Jayson> -----Original
Message-----> From: DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS [mailto:TSOKAKIS@xxxx]>
Sent: Thursday, November 06, 2003 11:02 AM> To:
amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> Subject: [amibroker] Re: Historical
trendlines> > > This is not the technical part, it is
closer to the fundamentals> [AFL N/A !!]> The pre-market activity
was interesting.> I am ~80% invested this period to follow this
[interesting] breakout.> [I don't like so much the >75%]>
Anyway...> Dimitris Tsokakis> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx,
"Jayson" <jcasavant@xxxx> wrote:> > Dimitris,> > the
challenge (for me) is to trust the last few break out days of> CSCO
as> > true strength or simply pre earnings posturing. In this case
it> certainly> > would have been beneficial to trust the line
studies. The previous> release> > of earnings was not so
kind......Sooo many pieces to the puzzle> >> >
Regards,> > Jayson> > -----Original Message----->
> From: Dimitris Tsokakis [mailto:TSOKAKIS@xxxx]> > Sent: Thursday,
November 06, 2003 8:37 AM> > To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: [amibroker] Historical trendlines> >>
>> > 8 bars ago CSCO broke the support trendline.> > 2
bars ago broke the resistance line in the new [parallel] channel.>
> Since we can not remember everything, it is better to use the>
memory of the> > /*HISTORICAL TRENDLINES and BREAKOUTS*/> >
x = Cum(1);> > per = 3;// CALIBRATE THE ZIG() SENSITIVITY> >
s1=L;s11=H;> > pS = TroughBars( s1, per, 1 ) == 0;> >
endt=SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pS, x ,1));> >
startt=SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pS, x ,2));> > dtS
=endt-startt;> > endS = SelectedValue((ValueWhen( pS, s1,1)
));> > startS = SelectedValue(( ValueWhen( pS, s1 ,2)));> >
aS = (endS-startS)/dtS;bS = endS;> > trendlineS = aS * ( x -endt ) +
bS;//SUPPORT LINE> > pR = PeakBars( s11, per, 1 ) == 0;> >
endt1= SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pR, x, 1));> >
startt1=SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pR, x, 2 ));> > dtR
=endt1-startt1;> > endR = SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pR, s11, 1 )
);> > startR = SelectedValue( ValueWhen( pR, s11, 2 ));> >
aR = (endR-startR)/dtR;bR = endR;> > trendlineR = aR * ( x -endt1 ) +
bR;//RESISTANCE LINE> >
first=Min(startt,startt1);Last=Max(endt,endt1);> > d=10;// INCREASE d
TO EXTEND THE LINES> > bullishbreakout=x>endt1 AND x<last+d AND
Cross(C,trendlineR);> > bearishbreakout=x>endt AND x<last+d AND
Cross(trendlineS,C);> >
Plot(C,"Close",IIf(bullishbreakout,colorBrightGreen,IIf> >
(bearishbreakout,colorRed,colorBlack)),64);> > Plot(IIf(x>=first -d
AND x<=Last+d,trendlineS,-> >
1e10),"Support",colorBrightGreen,1);> > Plot(IIf(x>=first-d AND
x<=Last+d,trendlineR,-> > 1e10),"Resistance",colorRed,1);>
>> > Just move your cursor to the left, it will help to study the
recent> > behavior.> > The same procedure may be used
for indicators [some slight per> changes are> >
necessary]> >> > /*HISTORICAL TRENDLINES and BREAKOUTS for
INDICATORS*/> > x = Cum(1);> > per = 1;// CALIBRATE THE
ZIG() SENSITIVITY> > s1=RSI();s11=RSI();> > pS = TroughBars(
s1, per, 1 ) == 0;> > endt=SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pS, x
,1));> > startt=SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pS, x ,2));> > dtS
=endt-startt;> > endS = SelectedValue((ValueWhen( pS, s1,1)
));> > startS = SelectedValue(( ValueWhen( pS, s1 ,2)));> >
aS = (endS-startS)/dtS;bS = endS;> > trendlineS = aS * ( x -endt ) +
bS;//SUPPORT LINE> > pR = PeakBars( s11, per, 1 ) == 0;> >
endt1= SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pR, x, 1));> >
startt1=SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pR, x, 2 ));> > dtR
=endt1-startt1;> > endR = SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pR, s11, 1 )
);> > startR = SelectedValue( ValueWhen( pR, s11, 2 ));> >
aR = (endR-startR)/dtR;bR = endR;> > trendlineR = aR * ( x -endt1 ) +
bR;//RESISTANCE LINE> >
first=Min(startt,startt1);Last=Max(endt,endt1);> > d=10;// INCREASE d
TO EXTEND THE LINES> > bullishbreakout=x>endt1 AND x<last+d AND
Cross(s1,trendlineR);> > bearishbreakout=x>endt AND x<last+d AND
Cross(trendlineS,s1);> >
Plot(RSI(),"RSI",IIf(bullishbreakout,colorBrightGreen,IIf> >
(bearishbreakout,colorRed,colorBlack)),8);> > Plot(IIf(x>=first -d
AND x<=Last+d,trendlineS,-> >
1e10),"Support",colorBrightGreen,1);> > Plot(IIf(x>=first-d AND
x<=Last+d,trendlineR,-> > 1e10),"Resistance",colorRed,1);>
>> > It was VERY useful for CLZ03, two days ago.> >
Dimitris Tsokakis> >> >>
> Yahoo! Groups Sponsor>
>
ADVERTISEMENT> >> >> >> >> >
Send BUG REPORTS to bugs@xxxx> > Send SUGGESTIONS to
suggest@xxxx> > -----------------------------------------> >
Post AmiQuote-related messages ONLY to: amiquote@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> >
(Web page: <A
href="">http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amiquote/messages/)>
> --------------------------------------------> > Check group FAQ
at:> > <A
href="">http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/files/groupfaq.html>
>> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of
Service.> > >
Yahoo! Groups
Sponsor>
ADVERTISEMENT> > > > > Send BUG REPORTS to
bugs@xxxx> Send SUGGESTIONS to suggest@xxxx>
-----------------------------------------> Post AmiQuote-related messages
ONLY to: amiquote@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> (Web page: <A
href="">http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amiquote/messages/)>
--------------------------------------------> Check group FAQ at:>
<A
href="">http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/files/groupfaq.html>
> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of
Service.Send
BUG REPORTS to bugs@xxxxxxxxxxxxxSend SUGGESTIONS to
suggest@xxxxxxxxxxxxx-----------------------------------------Post
AmiQuote-related messages ONLY to: amiquote@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx (Web page: <A
href="">http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amiquote/messages/)--------------------------------------------Check
group FAQ at: <A
href="">http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/files/groupfaq.html
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the <A
href="">Yahoo! Terms of Service.
Yahoo! Groups Sponsor
ADVERTISEMENT
Send BUG REPORTS to bugs@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Send SUGGESTIONS to suggest@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
-----------------------------------------
Post AmiQuote-related messages ONLY to: amiquote@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
(Web page: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amiquote/messages/)
--------------------------------------------
Check group FAQ at: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/files/groupfaq.html
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.
|