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Mark,
I did not say anything for your approach.
You offerred an interesting thread and thank you very much for the
precious time you spent for the benefit of the members.
The spirit of the discussion was what I said.
Some people attack any non robust solution, as if the markets are
full of safe decisions.
The real thing is the upcoming CL breakout [two bars ago] and the
lack of full technical evidence.
If you trade this item, you are almost forced to do something before
it is too late.
Maths are easy, in this case : A symmetric wedge will have a bullish
OR a bearish breakout.
Maths are tough in this case: Bullish AND bearish will not occur
together !!!
Maths are leaving the stage at this critical point and go for lunch.
The usual [for CL futures] Fibonacci 61.8% retracement is **already**
violated a bit and, below the last 61.8% nobody in this world will
give you any guarantee for the next movement.
I have some observations on this, the CL behavior is somehow tricky,
many people trade the exact Fibonacci level [and date], CL waits and
reacts later, when many automatic exits are already activated...
This was the situation. A symmetric RSI wedge and an already broken
61.8% Fibonacci level. All the rest were ambiguous. Thatīs why I
wrote that the technical evidence was a 30% of the decision. The rest
is nothing but the agony to go north or south.
The next day [today] everything was bright. More than 10 serious
technical parameters ensured and confirmed the change of CL mood.
But, all this was **after** the +5.5%.
This is the real example, sometimes you decide without full technical
support and it is not the easiest thing in the world.
Dimitris Tsokakis
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "quanttrader714"
<quanttrader714@xxxx> wrote:
> DT,
>
> Agree completely on the math *not* being easy, but never meant to
> imply that approaches that are not robust should necessarily be
> avoided. I was asked to present my criteria for robustness which
just
> so happens to be what my trading style is converging on as I travel
> through time at the speed of light (of course minus adjustment for
> movement).
>
> Mark
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS"
<TSOKAKIS@xxxx>
> wrote:
> > Jayson,
> > I will not agree at all.
> > Looking at the math is not easy.
> > The reason is simple, when the maths are applied.
> > I was in front of a pure symmetrical converging trendlines
> formation
> > two days ago in Light Crude RSI.
> > The maths equally anticipate the bullish or bearish breakout,
since
> > we were only 1 bar before the fact [far from the office now, can
> not
> > post the gif...]
> > I was waiting, thinking and checking an ocean of parameters
without
> > any "robust" output.
> > We talked that much these days for robust solutions and, if I'm
not
> > wrong, there was a spirit to avoid following anything not robust.
> > Life is different, Crude oil is tough, the symmetric wedge was
> there,
> > it was more than real, it was fully formated and 1 bar before the
> > unavoidable breakout. This is the real thing, you can not turn
the
> > face to reality and search for safe places, there are no safe
> corners
> > in the market, you should be there to make or to break, just like
a
> > binary PMPB switch [push-to-make-push-to-break].
> > Now I know that it was 70% emotional/30% technical to select the
> Long
> > side. The next day was great, oil was going higher and higher,
> > everybody was speaking for the great news, many "analysts" were
> > talking and talking with the words "after", "because", and
similar
> > silly things. I was on the right side, BUT, I know it was ONLY
30%
> > technical and I was not talking to anybody and I didn't want to
> talk
> > to anybody.
> > CSCO parallel breakout was more accessible I think.
> > Dimitris Tsokakis
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Jayson" <jcasavant@xxxx> wrote:
> > > "This is not the technical part, it is closer to the
fundamentals
> > > [AFL N/A !!]"
> > >
> > > And yet it is difficult to avoid the collision of both worlds.
> > Looking at
> > > the math is far easier than looking at the psychology that
> actually
> > drives
> > > the market. It's those damn people that make trading so
> > challenging....
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Regards,
> > > Jayson
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS [mailto:TSOKAKIS@x...]
> > > Sent: Thursday, November 06, 2003 11:02 AM
> > > To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Subject: [amibroker] Re: Historical trendlines
> > >
> > >
> > > This is not the technical part, it is closer to the fundamentals
> > > [AFL N/A !!]
> > > The pre-market activity was interesting.
> > > I am ~80% invested this period to follow this [interesting]
> > breakout.
> > > [I don't like so much the >75%]
> > > Anyway...
> > > Dimitris Tsokakis
> > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Jayson" <jcasavant@xxxx>
wrote:
> > > > Dimitris,
> > > > the challenge (for me) is to trust the last few break out days
> of
> > > CSCO as
> > > > true strength or simply pre earnings posturing. In this case
it
> > > certainly
> > > > would have been beneficial to trust the line studies. The
> previous
> > > release
> > > > of earnings was not so kind......Sooo many pieces to the
puzzle
> > > >
> > > > Regards,
> > > > Jayson
> > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > From: Dimitris Tsokakis [mailto:TSOKAKIS@x...]
> > > > Sent: Thursday, November 06, 2003 8:37 AM
> > > > To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > Subject: [amibroker] Historical trendlines
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > 8 bars ago CSCO broke the support trendline.
> > > > 2 bars ago broke the resistance line in the new [parallel]
> > channel.
> > > > Since we can not remember everything, it is better to use the
> > > memory of the
> > > > /*HISTORICAL TRENDLINES and BREAKOUTS*/
> > > > x = Cum(1);
> > > > per = 3;// CALIBRATE THE ZIG() SENSITIVITY
> > > > s1=L;s11=H;
> > > > pS = TroughBars( s1, per, 1 ) == 0;
> > > > endt=SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pS, x ,1));
> > > > startt=SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pS, x ,2));
> > > > dtS =endt-startt;
> > > > endS = SelectedValue((ValueWhen( pS, s1,1) ));
> > > > startS = SelectedValue(( ValueWhen( pS, s1 ,2)));
> > > > aS = (endS-startS)/dtS;bS = endS;
> > > > trendlineS = aS * ( x -endt ) + bS;//SUPPORT LINE
> > > > pR = PeakBars( s11, per, 1 ) == 0;
> > > > endt1= SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pR, x, 1));
> > > > startt1=SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pR, x, 2 ));
> > > > dtR =endt1-startt1;
> > > > endR = SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pR, s11, 1 ) );
> > > > startR = SelectedValue( ValueWhen( pR, s11, 2 ));
> > > > aR = (endR-startR)/dtR;bR = endR;
> > > > trendlineR = aR * ( x -endt1 ) + bR;//RESISTANCE LINE
> > > > first=Min(startt,startt1);Last=Max(endt,endt1);
> > > > d=10;// INCREASE d TO EXTEND THE LINES
> > > > bullishbreakout=x>endt1 AND x<last+d AND Cross(C,trendlineR);
> > > > bearishbreakout=x>endt AND x<last+d AND Cross(trendlineS,C);
> > > > Plot(C,"Close",IIf(bullishbreakout,colorBrightGreen,IIf
> > > > (bearishbreakout,colorRed,colorBlack)),64);
> > > > Plot(IIf(x>=first -d AND x<=Last+d,trendlineS,-
> > > > 1e10),"Support",colorBrightGreen,1);
> > > > Plot(IIf(x>=first-d AND x<=Last+d,trendlineR,-
> > > > 1e10),"Resistance",colorRed,1);
> > > >
> > > > Just move your cursor to the left, it will help to study the
> > recent
> > > > behavior.
> > > > The same procedure may be used for indicators [some slight per
> > > changes are
> > > > necessary]
> > > >
> > > > /*HISTORICAL TRENDLINES and BREAKOUTS for INDICATORS*/
> > > > x = Cum(1);
> > > > per = 1;// CALIBRATE THE ZIG() SENSITIVITY
> > > > s1=RSI();s11=RSI();
> > > > pS = TroughBars( s1, per, 1 ) == 0;
> > > > endt=SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pS, x ,1));
> > > > startt=SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pS, x ,2));
> > > > dtS =endt-startt;
> > > > endS = SelectedValue((ValueWhen( pS, s1,1) ));
> > > > startS = SelectedValue(( ValueWhen( pS, s1 ,2)));
> > > > aS = (endS-startS)/dtS;bS = endS;
> > > > trendlineS = aS * ( x -endt ) + bS;//SUPPORT LINE
> > > > pR = PeakBars( s11, per, 1 ) == 0;
> > > > endt1= SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pR, x, 1));
> > > > startt1=SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pR, x, 2 ));
> > > > dtR =endt1-startt1;
> > > > endR = SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pR, s11, 1 ) );
> > > > startR = SelectedValue( ValueWhen( pR, s11, 2 ));
> > > > aR = (endR-startR)/dtR;bR = endR;
> > > > trendlineR = aR * ( x -endt1 ) + bR;//RESISTANCE LINE
> > > > first=Min(startt,startt1);Last=Max(endt,endt1);
> > > > d=10;// INCREASE d TO EXTEND THE LINES
> > > > bullishbreakout=x>endt1 AND x<last+d AND Cross(s1,trendlineR);
> > > > bearishbreakout=x>endt AND x<last+d AND Cross(trendlineS,s1);
> > > > Plot(RSI(),"RSI",IIf(bullishbreakout,colorBrightGreen,IIf
> > > > (bearishbreakout,colorRed,colorBlack)),8);
> > > > Plot(IIf(x>=first -d AND x<=Last+d,trendlineS,-
> > > > 1e10),"Support",colorBrightGreen,1);
> > > > Plot(IIf(x>=first-d AND x<=Last+d,trendlineR,-
> > > > 1e10),"Resistance",colorRed,1);
> > > >
> > > > It was VERY useful for CLZ03, two days ago.
> > > > Dimitris Tsokakis
> > > >
> > > >
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