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Jayson,
I will not agree at all.
Looking at the math is not easy.
The reason is simple, when the maths are applied.
I was in front of a pure symmetrical converging trendlines formation
two days ago in Light Crude RSI.
The maths equally anticipate the bullish or bearish breakout, since
we were only 1 bar before the fact [far from the office now, can not
post the gif...]
I was waiting, thinking and checking an ocean of parameters without
any "robust" output.
We talked that much these days for robust solutions and, if I'm not
wrong, there was a spirit to avoid following anything not robust.
Life is different, Crude oil is tough, the symmetric wedge was there,
it was more than real, it was fully formated and 1 bar before the
unavoidable breakout. This is the real thing, you can not turn the
face to reality and search for safe places, there are no safe corners
in the market, you should be there to make or to break, just like a
binary PMPB switch [push-to-make-push-to-break].
Now I know that it was 70% emotional/30% technical to select the Long
side. The next day was great, oil was going higher and higher,
everybody was speaking for the great news, many "analysts" were
talking and talking with the words "after", "because", and similar
silly things. I was on the right side, BUT, I know it was ONLY 30%
technical and I was not talking to anybody and I didn't want to talk
to anybody.
CSCO parallel breakout was more accessible I think.
Dimitris Tsokakis
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Jayson" <jcasavant@xxxx> wrote:
> "This is not the technical part, it is closer to the fundamentals
> [AFL N/A !!]"
>
> And yet it is difficult to avoid the collision of both worlds.
Looking at
> the math is far easier than looking at the psychology that actually
drives
> the market. It's those damn people that make trading so
challenging....
>
>
>
> Regards,
> Jayson
> -----Original Message-----
> From: DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS [mailto:TSOKAKIS@x...]
> Sent: Thursday, November 06, 2003 11:02 AM
> To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: [amibroker] Re: Historical trendlines
>
>
> This is not the technical part, it is closer to the fundamentals
> [AFL N/A !!]
> The pre-market activity was interesting.
> I am ~80% invested this period to follow this [interesting]
breakout.
> [I don't like so much the >75%]
> Anyway...
> Dimitris Tsokakis
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Jayson" <jcasavant@xxxx> wrote:
> > Dimitris,
> > the challenge (for me) is to trust the last few break out days of
> CSCO as
> > true strength or simply pre earnings posturing. In this case it
> certainly
> > would have been beneficial to trust the line studies. The previous
> release
> > of earnings was not so kind......Sooo many pieces to the puzzle
> >
> > Regards,
> > Jayson
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: Dimitris Tsokakis [mailto:TSOKAKIS@x...]
> > Sent: Thursday, November 06, 2003 8:37 AM
> > To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: [amibroker] Historical trendlines
> >
> >
> > 8 bars ago CSCO broke the support trendline.
> > 2 bars ago broke the resistance line in the new [parallel]
channel.
> > Since we can not remember everything, it is better to use the
> memory of the
> > /*HISTORICAL TRENDLINES and BREAKOUTS*/
> > x = Cum(1);
> > per = 3;// CALIBRATE THE ZIG() SENSITIVITY
> > s1=L;s11=H;
> > pS = TroughBars( s1, per, 1 ) == 0;
> > endt=SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pS, x ,1));
> > startt=SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pS, x ,2));
> > dtS =endt-startt;
> > endS = SelectedValue((ValueWhen( pS, s1,1) ));
> > startS = SelectedValue(( ValueWhen( pS, s1 ,2)));
> > aS = (endS-startS)/dtS;bS = endS;
> > trendlineS = aS * ( x -endt ) + bS;//SUPPORT LINE
> > pR = PeakBars( s11, per, 1 ) == 0;
> > endt1= SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pR, x, 1));
> > startt1=SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pR, x, 2 ));
> > dtR =endt1-startt1;
> > endR = SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pR, s11, 1 ) );
> > startR = SelectedValue( ValueWhen( pR, s11, 2 ));
> > aR = (endR-startR)/dtR;bR = endR;
> > trendlineR = aR * ( x -endt1 ) + bR;//RESISTANCE LINE
> > first=Min(startt,startt1);Last=Max(endt,endt1);
> > d=10;// INCREASE d TO EXTEND THE LINES
> > bullishbreakout=x>endt1 AND x<last+d AND Cross(C,trendlineR);
> > bearishbreakout=x>endt AND x<last+d AND Cross(trendlineS,C);
> > Plot(C,"Close",IIf(bullishbreakout,colorBrightGreen,IIf
> > (bearishbreakout,colorRed,colorBlack)),64);
> > Plot(IIf(x>=first -d AND x<=Last+d,trendlineS,-
> > 1e10),"Support",colorBrightGreen,1);
> > Plot(IIf(x>=first-d AND x<=Last+d,trendlineR,-
> > 1e10),"Resistance",colorRed,1);
> >
> > Just move your cursor to the left, it will help to study the
recent
> > behavior.
> > The same procedure may be used for indicators [some slight per
> changes are
> > necessary]
> >
> > /*HISTORICAL TRENDLINES and BREAKOUTS for INDICATORS*/
> > x = Cum(1);
> > per = 1;// CALIBRATE THE ZIG() SENSITIVITY
> > s1=RSI();s11=RSI();
> > pS = TroughBars( s1, per, 1 ) == 0;
> > endt=SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pS, x ,1));
> > startt=SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pS, x ,2));
> > dtS =endt-startt;
> > endS = SelectedValue((ValueWhen( pS, s1,1) ));
> > startS = SelectedValue(( ValueWhen( pS, s1 ,2)));
> > aS = (endS-startS)/dtS;bS = endS;
> > trendlineS = aS * ( x -endt ) + bS;//SUPPORT LINE
> > pR = PeakBars( s11, per, 1 ) == 0;
> > endt1= SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pR, x, 1));
> > startt1=SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pR, x, 2 ));
> > dtR =endt1-startt1;
> > endR = SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pR, s11, 1 ) );
> > startR = SelectedValue( ValueWhen( pR, s11, 2 ));
> > aR = (endR-startR)/dtR;bR = endR;
> > trendlineR = aR * ( x -endt1 ) + bR;//RESISTANCE LINE
> > first=Min(startt,startt1);Last=Max(endt,endt1);
> > d=10;// INCREASE d TO EXTEND THE LINES
> > bullishbreakout=x>endt1 AND x<last+d AND Cross(s1,trendlineR);
> > bearishbreakout=x>endt AND x<last+d AND Cross(trendlineS,s1);
> > Plot(RSI(),"RSI",IIf(bullishbreakout,colorBrightGreen,IIf
> > (bearishbreakout,colorRed,colorBlack)),8);
> > Plot(IIf(x>=first -d AND x<=Last+d,trendlineS,-
> > 1e10),"Support",colorBrightGreen,1);
> > Plot(IIf(x>=first-d AND x<=Last+d,trendlineR,-
> > 1e10),"Resistance",colorRed,1);
> >
> > It was VERY useful for CLZ03, two days ago.
> > Dimitris Tsokakis
> >
> >
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> >
> >
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