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Re: [amibroker] Re: solving the prediction problem



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Hi palsanand,

Sunday, October 26, 2003, 10:22:56 AM, you wrote:

p> The Pivot Points AFL predicted High/Low of Day
p> (Support/Resistance) only works in conjunction with a
p> non-optimized, walk forward tested proven system which is based on
p> sound trading principles, logic and experience.

p> It would not work stand-alone because one does not have a basis to
p> determine whether one wants to enter at Market on Open or Low of 
p> Day/High of Day, which is determined solely by the strength of the
p> signal referred in the industry as the Adviser Rating...
p> Thousands of floor traders use it extensively and consider it as 
p> gospel...
p> I cannot stress this point more than this...

I didn't really expect that it would work alone.  But what you are
describing does not sound to me like a mechanical system, either,
which is what most here are attempting to code I think.  When you
talk about "experience" above, it sounds to me like you are talking
about a non-mechanical way of judging exactly where to enter a
market. Moreover, suggesting that you can knowingly enter on the high
or low, is just plain nonsense to me.  If you trade long enough you
*have* to get it right sometimes, just on chance.  But anyone who has
traded real money for any length of time knows that this is simply a
pipe dream.  Sorry, but I have traded for nearly 30 years now, and I
know pipe dreams when I hear them.

Finally, anything that is used by "thousands" of floor traders would
soon be worthless, as the market would immediately begin to discount
the activity of the system until the system was a sure loser.  No
such system used by a very large number of insiders would be
effective after very long.

Somehow, it still sounds like you are selling something, to me. ^^_^^

Yuki


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