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In order to make money, which is what I thought the goal was, do we
really need to know how high is up etc. ?
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Dave Merrill" <dmerrill@xxxx>
wrote:
> knowing that the markets go up and down isn't tradable knowledge.
you have
> to know something about *which* of those two things will happen, to
which
> stocks, when, and/or how far. as far as I know, patterns on those
levels do
> change over time, or at least the lengths over which they cycle
change.
>
> what *tradable* market behaviors are there that are constant over
time?
>
> dave
> From: Fred [mailto:fctonetti@x...]
>
> Uhhh ... the ups and the downs ... as far as I can tell marlets
have
> pretty much done that since the beginning of time. Nothing much
> different about it in my view today the it was in any other time
> frame.
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Dave Merrill" <dmerrill@xxxx>
> wrote:
> > I'm serious fred. what kinds of tradable market behaviors are
you
> talking
> > about that aren't related to things that change over time?
> >
> > basic example: virtually every description of market behavior
I'm
> aware of
> > has time constants, trigger levels, and other "static" features
> whose best
> > performing values migrate or cycle over time. it seems unlikely
on
> the face
> > of it that the point where some specific MA crosses another
> specific MA is a
> > quasi-permanently useful switch point, for instance. what
inherent
> mechanism
> > of market behavior that makes this optimum, as opposed to some
> other pair of
> > MAs? is it really possible that these specific parameter values
are
> > constant, given all the changes in the economy, the trading
> population,
> > analysis technology, etc?
> >
> > you must be talking about some other level of behavior that's
> constant in
> > some pan-historical sense, but I'm lost without an example of a
> tradable
> > feature like this.
> >
> > (it's interesting to me that auto-optimizing system don't have
> those kinds
> > of static parameters in the same sense. yes, they have
specifics of
> course,
> > like constraints on the range of each parameter, time constants
on
> their
> > learning behaviors, and a definition of an equity metric. but
they
> make no
> > assumptions about what time constants or crossover levels work
> well, they
> > just try 'em and see.)
> >
> > dave
> >
> > forest (:-)
> >
> > what kinds of tradable market behavior should we be looking
> at/for that
> > transcend the "short-sighted view of history" we *shouldn't* be
> looking for?
> >
> > dave
> >
> > This makes me want to ask what your longest possible time
frame
> is ?
> >
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Dave Merrill"
<dmerrill@xxxx>
> > wrote:
> > > well yes, you're right, the same stuff is always
happening.
> prices
> > go up,
> > > prices go down, and they always have.
> > >
> > > but that's not useful info to trade on. what we care
about is
> > trends of some
> > > kind that can be predicted/hoped to continue or reverse in
> some
> > particular
> > > time frame. that's knowledge we can profit from. and those
> trends
> > come and
> > > go constantly, on every time scale. these shorter-term
moves
> are
> > what we
> > > trade.
> > >
> > > here's my question I guess: if I only see behavior that
never
> > changes over
> > > the longest possible time frame, what do I see that I can
use?
> > >
> > > dave
> > > There are a lot of questions and provacative statements
in
> your
> > post,
> > > only one of which from my perspective needs an
> answer/response.
> > >
> > > Market behavior will continually change after that ...
> > >
> > > Change ? from what ? into what ? I guess this is the
part I
> don't
> > > follow. To me there is nothing new in market behavior
now
> that
> > > didn't exist last month, last year, last decade, last
> century, but
> > > clearly those that take a short sighted view of history
and
> the
> > > market action that made up that history will clearly
never
> see it.
> > > It's a forest and trees thing ...
>
>
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