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<SPAN
class=329513711-20102003>knowing that the markets go up and down isn't tradable
knowledge. you have to know something about *which* of those two things will
happen, to which stocks, when, and/or how far. as far as I know, patterns
on those levels do change over time, or at least the lengths over which they
cycle change.
<SPAN
class=329513711-20102003>
<SPAN
class=329513711-20102003>what *tradable* market behaviors are there that are
constant over time?
<SPAN
class=329513711-20102003>
<SPAN
class=329513711-20102003>dave
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>From: Fred [mailto:fctonetti@xxxxxxxxx]Uhhh
... the ups and the downs ... as far as I can tell marlets have pretty
much done that since the beginning of time. Nothing much different
about it in my view today the it was in any other time frame.---
In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Dave Merrill" <dmerrill@xxxx>
wrote:> I'm serious fred. what kinds of tradable market behaviors
are you talking> about that aren't related to things that change
over time?> > basic example: virtually every description of
market behavior I'm aware of> has time constants, trigger levels,
and other "static" features whose best> performing values migrate
or cycle over time. it seems unlikely on the face> of it that the
point where some specific MA crosses another specific MA is a>
quasi-permanently useful switch point, for instance. what inherent
mechanism> of market behavior that makes this optimum, as opposed
to some other pair of> MAs? is it really possible that these
specific parameter values are> constant, given all the changes in the
economy, the trading population,> analysis technology, etc?>
> you must be talking about some other level of behavior that's
constant in> some pan-historical sense, but I'm lost without an
example of a tradable> feature like this.> > (it's
interesting to me that auto-optimizing system don't have those
kinds> of static parameters in the same sense. yes, they have specifics
of course,> like constraints on the range of each parameter, time
constants on their> learning behaviors, and a definition of an
equity metric. but they make no> assumptions about what time
constants or crossover levels work well, they> just try 'em and
see.)> > dave> > forest (:-)>
> what kinds of tradable market behavior should we be
looking at/for that> transcend the "short-sighted view of history"
we *shouldn't* be looking for?> > dave>
> This makes me want to ask what your longest
possible time frame is ?> > --- In
amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Dave Merrill"
<dmerrill@xxxx>>
wrote:> > well yes, you're right, the same
stuff is always happening. prices> go
up,> > prices go down, and they always
have.> >>
> but that's not useful info to trade on. what we care about
is> trends of
some> > kind that can be predicted/hoped to
continue or reverse in some>
particular> > time frame. that's knowledge
we can profit from. and those trends> come
and> > go constantly, on every time scale.
these shorter-term moves are> what
we> > trade.>
>> > here's my question I guess: if I
only see behavior that never> changes
over> > the longest possible time frame,
what do I see that I can use?>
>> > dave>
> There are a lot of questions and provacative statements in
your> post,>
> only one of which from my perspective needs an
answer/response.>
>> > Market behavior will
continually change after that ...>
>> > Change ? from what ?
into what ? I guess this is the part I
don't> > follow. To me
there is nothing new in market behavior now
that> > didn't exist last
month, last year, last decade, last century,
but> > clearly those that take a
short sighted view of history and the>
> market action that made up that history will clearly never
see it.> > It's a forest and
trees thing ...Send
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