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Uhhh ... the ups and the downs ... as far as I can tell marlets have
pretty much done that since the beginning of time. Nothing much
different about it in my view today the it was in any other time
frame.
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Dave Merrill" <dmerrill@xxxx>
wrote:
> I'm serious fred. what kinds of tradable market behaviors are you
talking
> about that aren't related to things that change over time?
>
> basic example: virtually every description of market behavior I'm
aware of
> has time constants, trigger levels, and other "static" features
whose best
> performing values migrate or cycle over time. it seems unlikely on
the face
> of it that the point where some specific MA crosses another
specific MA is a
> quasi-permanently useful switch point, for instance. what inherent
mechanism
> of market behavior that makes this optimum, as opposed to some
other pair of
> MAs? is it really possible that these specific parameter values are
> constant, given all the changes in the economy, the trading
population,
> analysis technology, etc?
>
> you must be talking about some other level of behavior that's
constant in
> some pan-historical sense, but I'm lost without an example of a
tradable
> feature like this.
>
> (it's interesting to me that auto-optimizing system don't have
those kinds
> of static parameters in the same sense. yes, they have specifics of
course,
> like constraints on the range of each parameter, time constants on
their
> learning behaviors, and a definition of an equity metric. but they
make no
> assumptions about what time constants or crossover levels work
well, they
> just try 'em and see.)
>
> dave
>
> forest (:-)
>
> what kinds of tradable market behavior should we be looking
at/for that
> transcend the "short-sighted view of history" we *shouldn't* be
looking for?
>
> dave
>
> This makes me want to ask what your longest possible time frame
is ?
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Dave Merrill" <dmerrill@xxxx>
> wrote:
> > well yes, you're right, the same stuff is always happening.
prices
> go up,
> > prices go down, and they always have.
> >
> > but that's not useful info to trade on. what we care about is
> trends of some
> > kind that can be predicted/hoped to continue or reverse in
some
> particular
> > time frame. that's knowledge we can profit from. and those
trends
> come and
> > go constantly, on every time scale. these shorter-term moves
are
> what we
> > trade.
> >
> > here's my question I guess: if I only see behavior that never
> changes over
> > the longest possible time frame, what do I see that I can use?
> >
> > dave
> > There are a lot of questions and provacative statements in
your
> post,
> > only one of which from my perspective needs an
answer/response.
> >
> > Market behavior will continually change after that ...
> >
> > Change ? from what ? into what ? I guess this is the part I
don't
> > follow. To me there is nothing new in market behavior now
that
> > didn't exist last month, last year, last decade, last
century, but
> > clearly those that take a short sighted view of history and
the
> > market action that made up that history will clearly never
see it.
> > It's a forest and trees thing ...
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