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<SPAN
class=872240002-20102003>I'm serious fred. what kinds of tradable market
behaviors are you talking about that aren't related to things that change over
time?
<SPAN
class=872240002-20102003>
<SPAN
class=872240002-20102003>basic example: virtually every description of
market behavior I'm aware of has time constants, trigger levels, and other
"static" features whose best performing values migrate or cycle over time. it
seems unlikely on the face of it that the point where some specific MA crosses
another specific MA is a quasi-permanently useful switch point, <SPAN
class=872240002-20102003>for instance. what inherent mechanism of market
behavior that makes this optimum, as opposed to some other pair of MAs? is it
really possible that these specific parameter values are constant, given all the
changes in the economy, the trading population, analysis technology,
etc?
<SPAN
class=872240002-20102003>
<SPAN
class=872240002-20102003>you must be talking about some other level of behavior
that's constant in some pan-historical sense, but I'm lost without an example of
a tradable feature like this.
<SPAN
class=872240002-20102003>
<SPAN
class=872240002-20102003>(it's interesting to me that
auto-optimizing system don't have those kinds of static parameters in the
same sense. yes, they have specifics of course, like constraints on the range of
each parameter, time constants on their learning behaviors, and a definition of
an equity metric. but they make no assumptions about what time constants or
crossover levels work well, they just try 'em and see.)
<SPAN
class=872240002-20102003>
<SPAN
class=872240002-20102003>dave
<SPAN
class=872240002-20102003>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
>
<SPAN
class=870115022-19102003>forest (:-)
<SPAN
class=870115022-19102003>
<SPAN
class=870115022-19102003>what kinds of tradable market behavior should we
be looking at/for that transcend the "short-sighted view of history" we
*shouldn't* be looking for?
<SPAN
class=870115022-19102003>
<SPAN
class=870115022-19102003>dave
<SPAN
class=870115022-19102003>
<BLOCKQUOTE
>This
makes me want to ask what your longest possible time frame is ?---
In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Dave Merrill" <dmerrill@xxxx>
wrote:> well yes, you're right, the same stuff is always
happening. prices go up,> prices go down, and they always
have.> > but that's not useful info to trade on. what we care
about is trends of some> kind that can be predicted/hoped to
continue or reverse in some particular> time frame. that's
knowledge we can profit from. and those trends come and> go
constantly, on every time scale. these shorter-term moves are what
we> trade.> > here's my question I guess: if I only see
behavior that never changes over> the longest possible time
frame, what do I see that I can use?> >
dave> There are a lot of questions and provacative
statements in your post,> only one of which from my
perspective needs an answer/response.> > Market
behavior will continually change after that ...> >
Change ? from what ? into what ? I guess this is the part I
don't> follow. To me there is nothing new in market
behavior now that> didn't exist last month, last year,
last decade, last century, but> clearly those that take a
short sighted view of history and the> market action that
made up that history will clearly never see it.> It's a
forest and trees thing ...
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