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<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
<A title=sloughbridge@xxxxxxxxx
href="">sloughbridge
To: <A title=amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Friday, September 19, 2003 11:39
AM
Subject: [amibroker] Re: using %b and
Bollinger's Method II
--- In <A
href="">amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "john
gibb" <jgibb1@x...> wrote:> Hi
sloughbridge,> > I interpret Method II to be a trend
continuation rather than trend reversal (end-of-trend)
system.Yep. The exit has to come sometime, but the >80 is a
counterintuitive entry.
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
you mean that, intuitively, you
think the up move is nearly over by the time 80 is exceeded; right? Probably
this is why he insists upon confirmation by a volume-dependent
indicator.
> > I am using
SAR for exits and the '%b<20 AND MFI<20' only for new sell
signals.> > But, since my results are not that great, I may take
his suggestion and use Method II merely as a setup for his Squeeze (Method
I) system.I don't get this. Trend, band-walking, is
after the squeeze, confirmed by the >80 signs.
good point..i am not sure
either...i originally thought, since his Method I wanted a breakout at or
beyond the bands (ie %b >= 100 for longs or %b <= 0 for shorts), that
the 80 and 20 threshholds of Method II were just interim points on the way to,
and could be alerts for, the more extreme values. Therefore Method II
'anticipated' Method I.
Now, it appears that the
opposite might be the case: a Squeeze and breakout (Method I) as a precursor
to Method II, which adds the volume-dependent indicator.
<FONT face=Arial color=#008000
size=2>
If you enter here, it can be late as he
mentions.
Indeed...if I had used
BandWidth to signal a Squeeze and then entered at the first upper band
tag, I may have gotten in to my mildly proftable AMT trade at least 3 days
earlier.(Of course, he suggests that I could have also gotten
whipsawed)
see attached; the cross
hair is on 8/18/03, the day which generated my Method II signal; the Squeeze
looks like it ends 3 days before that (i.e., increasing BandWidth
and an upper band tag.
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
He also gives an exit signs of multiple upperband tags with declining
indicators, or a high outside followed by a new high inside the
bands.
i don't remember seeing that
but i chose SAR for exiting because it was already coded and seemed
easier
<FONT face=Arial
color=#008000 size=2><FONT
face=Arial color=#008000 size=2><FONT face=Arial color=#008000
size=2>(I also have this thought that %b should be qualified by the
BandWidth; i.e., an %b of 80 when the bands are narrow doesn't seem as
good a signal as %b of 80 when they are wide)Definitely, as narrow
bands represent congestion, widening bands trends.
right, it looks like I
should incorporate a %b-relative-to-BandWidth filter of some
sort
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
thanks for the
feedback
-john
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