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Recent History
Here in the US market, for the runs up from the Oct 2002 low and the Mar
2003 low, trend riding was difficult to do because of the high volatility
in the market. Several trading friends were frequently exiting the market
on each twitch down ( perceived or real ) and did not extract much profit
from those runs. The problem, of course, is that one has to allow
considerable "breathing room" to accommodate the volatility. so when the
end of the run does occur, a fair sized chunk of profit is sacrificed to
provide more certainty that exiting is the right move. It is never easy....
In late July and August as the US market flattened out I took some money
off the table and as usual some moves were right and some (semiconductors)
were wrong. Currently I am 40% cash looking for opportunities, 40% long
and 20% short. In years past I usually found myself conflicted whenever I
carried simultaneous long and short positions but after 35 years of trading
I am finally learning to live with it. :-)
It is so hard to try and clear old trash from ones mind. I have been
beaten up in so many September and early October markets that I cannot help
myself, I must be cautious. I know it is not following the flow of the
market but there it is...
I do think it would be helpful to get some sort of pullback in the market
to "clear the air" and provide some new entry possibilities. Having said
that, I am reasonably sure the market will not provide us with such an easy
reentry.
Cheers and good trading
Sid
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