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Hi Ron,
Tuesday, July 8, 2003, 12:00:36 AM, you wrote:
m> I don't like BOP either, I just thought I would include it in some
m> tests that I have planned.
It's an interesting situation. I also have never found any use for
BOP, nor most of the more "sophisticated" volume indicators -- by
that term I mean those that purport to breakdown the volume in
complex ways that reveal inner market secrets.
Nor have I been able to find anything worthwhile in ideas such as
"unsophisticated money moves the market on the open, and smart money
moves the market after the open". Formulas that compare
previous-close to open variance with open to close variance are often
dead wrong as "predictors" of price -- you can graph this difference
over time, and the results are often laughable, as the "smart money"
continues to "accumulate", while price is sinking like a rock.
OTOH however, I feel that volume is significant. But to be
significant I find it has to be quite obvious. If it isn't very
obvious, it probably isn't significant, and if it is very obvious we
don't need complex indicators to see it on a chart. Most of the time
I don't think one can determine much from the ebb and flow of daily
volume. For moves like the one that is underway, I think it stands
out like a sore thumb on the charts. The only way to have missed
this was to either have been asleep, or to have had a preconceived
notion about the market than overrode what should have been obvious.
I can claim partial guilt on the latter. ^_- While doing very well,
I could have done even much better.
Yuki
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