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[amibroker] Re: Price Persistency



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Anthony,

That is correct.

Thanks

Eugene

--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Anthony Faragasso" <ajf1111@xxxx>
wrote:
> Eugene,
> 
> So...are you saying the pattern you are looking for  **as your
example** is down 2 days followed by up 5 days...then what happens
next....
> 
> Anthony
>   ----- Original Message ----- 
>   From: Eugene 
>   To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
>   Sent: Sunday, June 22, 2003 10:12 PM
>   Subject: [amibroker] Re: Price Persistency
> 
> 
>   Anthony,
> 
>   counting the runs up and down runs is great...I am more interested the
>   action after the run so that gives me a statistical probability of
>   what to expect.
>   so if the run was 2 down and then 5 up. Historically if I knew what
>   the action was subsequent to that 5 up run....It might help me develop
>   a trading system.
> 
>   Got any ideas??
> 
>   Thanks
> 
>   Eugene
> 
> 
>   In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Anthony Faragasso" <ajf1111@xxxx>
wrote:
>   > Dom,
>   > 
>   > Price Persistency is the number of days that a market continues to
>   close either up or down.  It's another term for a market run.  As an
>   indicator, price persistency is a measure of a very short term trend
>   based only on the history of the market's movement, unfiltered by any
>   complex calculation; all it involves is counting.
>   > 
>   > The advantage of price persistency is in its simplicity.  The market
>   is currently in a run or it isn't. It's either been down three days in
>   a row or it hasn't.  
>   > 
>   > OverView:
>   > 
>   > If you look at each day individually, the odds are nearly 50-50 that
>   the market would be up ( or down ) the next day.  However, as the
>   sequences run in either direction, the likelihood of the run
>   continuing generally grows smaller.
>   > 
>   >
>  
/------------------------------------------------------------------------------------/
>   > 
>   > I do not follow you with respect to **messing with the
>   formula**,,,Would you care to share your altered formula...so I may
>   give a more complete response...
>   > 
>   > Anthony
>   > 
>   > 
>   > 
>   > 
>   >   ----- Original Message ----- 
>   >   From: dom1_1998 
>   >   To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
>   >   Sent: Sunday, June 22, 2003 8:28 PM
>   >   Subject: [amibroker] Price Persistency
>   > 
>   > 
>   >   Hi Anthony:
>   > 
>   >   Being totally ignorant of programming I started messing with your
>   >   price persistency formula. 
>   > 
>   >   To avoid any previous numbers being included in the higher
numbers I
>   >   isolated each pattern on its own.  For example:
>   > 
>   >   Symbol !ADR(,qp2 symbol)251 bars loaded using your formula I get:
>   > 
>   >   127 1dayup, 123 1daydn, 67 2dayup, 63 2daydn, 31 3dayup, 30
3daydn,
>   >   17 4dayup, 12 4daydn and 11 5dayup, 4 5daydn.
>   > 
>   >   Isolating each pattern I now get:
>   >   24 1dayup, 27 1daydn, 22 2dayup, 14 2daydn, 8 3dayup, 10 daydn
>   >   2 4dayup, 6 4daydn, 1 5dayup, 1 5daydn.
>   > 
>   >   This radically reduces the hits.  My question is wouldn't
isolating a
>   >   pattern provide a more accurate probability analysis then
having the
>   >   lower column numbers included in the higher number columns?
>   > 
>   >   JMHO,
>   > 
>   >   Dominick
>   > 
>   > 
>   > 
>   > 
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