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Herman,
No, things do not change easily. When we speak for the past behavior,
I still prefer medium term analysis [smoothing factors from 20 to 50]
But, when we speak for the future, what did you expect me to do ? To
predict for +20 bars !!!May be, someday, but not now. I just try to
predict tomorrow´s Low, then tomorrow´s High and who knows what is
next. Let me go back to the presentation now and, in the mean time,
take a look at the
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/message/42524
proposals.
We need a basic hypothesis for RSI behavior.
Then we must see the statistics, if we believe it is a statistical
game and open a feed-back path [hypothesis-statistical confirmation]
and vice versa. This is the way to communicate, since I still forget
where is my magic stick.
Back to you soon
DT
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Herman van den Bergen"
<psytek@xxxx> wrote:
> You are on the right track DT, all we need to know is tomorrow's
change and
> we can double the profits on all our systems as a results of better
entries
> and exits. One day heh? I remember long ago you told me my systems
were too
> fast, in fact you wrote that you couldn't think that fast ;-)) are
> times-a-changing?
>
> One day at 70+% correct prediction sounds like the solution for me;
would
> make a nice qualifier for almost any system. I am looking forward
to what is
> coming up; your presentations have style and are basically mini-
tutorials,
> always with an interesting angle.
>
> Thanks and take care DT,
> Herman.
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS [mailto:TSOKAKIS@x...]
> Sent: Monday, June 16, 2003 3:52 PM
> To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: [amibroker] Re: The [unknown] next bar Support
>
>
> Herman,
> I need some more time, more checks, more examples etc.
> This was a good session.
> 85% of the predicted Lows were in the light category [<2% error]
> 65% of the predicted Lows were in the tough category [<1% error]
> and , although it is not over yet, I do not expect many things to
> change.
> Since you know me, you would also know that codes are upside down, I
> will give a more proper appearence tomorrow.
> DT
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Herman van den Bergen"
> <psytek@xxxx> wrote:
> > Nice DT, did i miss the code on this thread?
> >
> > I know you DT, You love to keep us in suspense before popping the
> code!
> >
> > Herman
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: Dimitris Tsokakis [mailto:TSOKAKIS@x...]
> > Sent: Monday, June 16, 2003 1:03 PM
> > To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: [amibroker] The [unknown] next bar Support
> >
> >
> > Here is my first attempt to predict the next bar Low.
> > The statistical results are not bad at all.
> > In the attached gif, next bar candles are plotted together with
> todays
> > Support prediction for tomorrow
> > [the last candle is missing, since it is not known yet.]
> > The support line is green when we predict tomorrows Low with
less
> than 2%
> > error
> > For ^NDX it was possible 148 from the last 200 bars [74%] , from
> the end
> > of last Aug.
> > For AMGN it was the 84%
> > 71 stocks of the N100 database obtained less than 2% Low
> approximation for
> > more than the half of the 200-bar test period.
> > How about a less than 1% error between the predicted and the
> actual Low?
> > For ^NDX it was possible the 48% of the last 200 bars.
> > 9 stocks were between 50% and 60% of this period.
> > The decay rate was not dramatic, 34 stocks were "less than 1%
> correct"
> > more than the 40% of their trading bars.
> > Instead of various artificial [and many times unrealistic]
> Support levels
> > [previous supports, Fibonacci supports, even trendlines supports]
> > is it better to *know* next bar Low with less than 2% error for
> the
> > majority [71%] of the stocks ?
> > Think about...
> > Dimitris Tsokakis
> >
> >
> > Yahoo! Groups Sponsor
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
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