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Eugene,
Absolute ^VIX values were not that reliable the last month or so.
Be careful and good luck !!
DT
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "epintoem" <epintoem@xxxx> wrote:
> Dimitris,
>
> The value of the Vix is currently in a place where prior reversals
> have occurred. I am currently trying to short the SP at 968.75. I
> dont have an equivalent number for NDX. I believe that it will
follow.
> I could be wrong but the driver for lower prices might be as a
result
> of the SEC investigation of IBM and the preannouncements for the
> following quarter.
> Just my two cents.
> Eugene
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Dimitris Tsokakis"
<TSOKAKIS@xxxx>
> wrote:
> > Steve,
> > Ascending ^VIX D_sat lines, combined with descending [or
> desaturated] ^NDX D_sat are usually matching to bearish N100
periods.
> > [Dec signals were aligned to this rule].
> > The recent situation was different. ^NDX D_sat remains relatively
> high going to the top again and again.
> > The same with the majority of the N100 stocks [look at the
MeanD_sat].
> > The last two months [April-May] ^NDX and the market refuse to
> desaturate with characteristic reaction points X1, X2, X3.
> > ^VIX reacted at X, stopping its way down [the signal was very good
> to detect the local ^VIX low]
> > Its positive orbit is not combined with the N100 lines and this
fact
> [among many others] made me cautious to consider it
> > as a bearish signal. I was expecting the market to make a quick
> double peak, the market not only confirmed but went a bit higher.
> > Bearish scenarios do not seem to match the recent market outlook.
> > I will not be surprised to see an attempt to May17, 2002 peak...
> > Going Short is not an easy job the last 160 bars, ^VIX behavior is
> not always a copy-paste method.
> > Day by day I change my opinion for the market, adding cautiously
> more bullish salt and cutting the bearish peper into
> > smaller [and smaller] pieces. Many indicators seem to agree with
> this recipe.
> > Anyway, I will wait to see market D_sat to de-saturate first and
> then de-dust the well known bearish scenarios [if necessary...]
> > Dimitris Tsokakis
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