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I will admit the absolute values of VIX have not been reliable at all.
We have seen higher prices and a declining VIX. I am using the VIX as
only a confirmatory factor. Trading is all about possibilities and
when the risk to reward is good....I take a trade. I believe at these
levels the risk is rather moderate. Which is why we have stop losses?
Eugene
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS" <TSOKAKIS@xxxx>
wrote:
> Eugene,
> Absolute ^VIX values were not that reliable the last month or so.
> Be careful and good luck !!
> DT
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "epintoem" <epintoem@xxxx> wrote:
> > Dimitris,
> >
> > The value of the Vix is currently in a place where prior reversals
> > have occurred. I am currently trying to short the SP at 968.75. I
> > dont have an equivalent number for NDX. I believe that it will
> follow.
> > I could be wrong but the driver for lower prices might be as a
> result
> > of the SEC investigation of IBM and the preannouncements for the
> > following quarter.
> > Just my two cents.
> > Eugene
> >
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Dimitris Tsokakis"
> <TSOKAKIS@xxxx>
> > wrote:
> > > Steve,
> > > Ascending ^VIX D_sat lines, combined with descending [or
> > desaturated] ^NDX D_sat are usually matching to bearish N100
> periods.
> > > [Dec signals were aligned to this rule].
> > > The recent situation was different. ^NDX D_sat remains relatively
> > high going to the top again and again.
> > > The same with the majority of the N100 stocks [look at the
> MeanD_sat].
> > > The last two months [April-May] ^NDX and the market refuse to
> > desaturate with characteristic reaction points X1, X2, X3.
> > > ^VIX reacted at X, stopping its way down [the signal was very good
> > to detect the local ^VIX low]
> > > Its positive orbit is not combined with the N100 lines and this
> fact
> > [among many others] made me cautious to consider it
> > > as a bearish signal. I was expecting the market to make a quick
> > double peak, the market not only confirmed but went a bit higher.
> > > Bearish scenarios do not seem to match the recent market outlook.
> > > I will not be surprised to see an attempt to May17, 2002 peak...
> > > Going Short is not an easy job the last 160 bars, ^VIX behavior is
> > not always a copy-paste method.
> > > Day by day I change my opinion for the market, adding cautiously
> > more bullish salt and cutting the bearish peper into
> > > smaller [and smaller] pieces. Many indicators seem to agree with
> > this recipe.
> > > Anyway, I will wait to see market D_sat to de-saturate first and
> > then de-dust the well known bearish scenarios [if necessary...]
> > > Dimitris Tsokakis
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