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Dimitris,
The value of the Vix is currently in a place where prior reversals
have occurred. I am currently trying to short the SP at 968.75. I
dont have an equivalent number for NDX. I believe that it will follow.
I could be wrong but the driver for lower prices might be as a result
of the SEC investigation of IBM and the preannouncements for the
following quarter.
Just my two cents.
Eugene
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Dimitris Tsokakis" <TSOKAKIS@xxxx>
wrote:
> Steve,
> Ascending ^VIX D_sat lines, combined with descending [or
desaturated] ^NDX D_sat are usually matching to bearish N100 periods.
> [Dec signals were aligned to this rule].
> The recent situation was different. ^NDX D_sat remains relatively
high going to the top again and again.
> The same with the majority of the N100 stocks [look at the MeanD_sat].
> The last two months [April-May] ^NDX and the market refuse to
desaturate with characteristic reaction points X1, X2, X3.
> ^VIX reacted at X, stopping its way down [the signal was very good
to detect the local ^VIX low]
> Its positive orbit is not combined with the N100 lines and this fact
[among many others] made me cautious to consider it
> as a bearish signal. I was expecting the market to make a quick
double peak, the market not only confirmed but went a bit higher.
> Bearish scenarios do not seem to match the recent market outlook.
> I will not be surprised to see an attempt to May17, 2002 peak...
> Going Short is not an easy job the last 160 bars, ^VIX behavior is
not always a copy-paste method.
> Day by day I change my opinion for the market, adding cautiously
more bullish salt and cutting the bearish peper into
> smaller [and smaller] pieces. Many indicators seem to agree with
this recipe.
> Anyway, I will wait to see market D_sat to de-saturate first and
then de-dust the well known bearish scenarios [if necessary...]
> Dimitris Tsokakis
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