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Steve,Ascending ^VIX D_sat lines, combined with descending
[or desaturated] ^NDX D_sat are usually matching to bearish N100
periods.[Dec signals were aligned to this rule]. The recent situation
was different. ^NDX D_sat remains relatively high going to the top again and
again.The same with the majority of the N100 stocks [look at the
MeanD_sat].The last two months [April-May] ^NDX and the market refuse to
desaturate with characteristic reaction points X1, X2, X3.^VIX reacted at X,
stopping its way down [the signal was very good to detect the local ^VIX
low]Its positive orbit is not combined with the N100 lines and this fact
[among many others] made me cautious to consider itas a bearish signal. I
was expecting the market to make a quick double peak, the market not only
confirmed but went a bit higher.Bearish scenarios do not seem to match
the recent market outlook.I will not be surprised to see an attempt to
May17, 2002 peak...Going Short is not an easy job the last 160 bars, ^VIX
behavior is not always a copy-paste method.Day by day I change my opinion
for the market, adding cautiously more bullish salt and cutting the bearish
peper intosmaller [and smaller] pieces. Many indicators seem to agree with
this recipe.Anyway, I will wait to see market D_sat to de-saturate first and
then de-dust the well known bearish scenarios [if necessary...]
Dimitris Tsokakis
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