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[amibroker] Re: Larry Williams Inner Circle Review



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Dale,

Thank you.

That is 1) all I wanted to know, and it tells me 2) all that I need to
know.

Regards,

Phsst

--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "dingo" <dingo@xxxx> wrote:
> You’re right I forgot to include that.
> 
>  
> 
> A nice system would have the following (speaking in terms of
Amibroker report statistics)
> 
>  
> 
> Annual system return of 50% or better.
> 
> Max System % Drawdown: 15% or lower.
> 
> Percentage of trades that are profitable: 70% or higher
> 
> Max consec. Losers: no more than 3
> 
> Ratio Avg win / Avg Loss:  1.5 or higher
> 
> Profit factor: 2.5 or higher
> 
>  
> 
> A great system:
> 
>  
> 
> Annual system return of 75% or better.
> 
> Max System % Drawdown: 12% or lower.
> 
> Percentage of trades that are profitable: 80% or higher
> 
> Max consec. Losers: no more than 2
> 
> Ratio Avg win / Avg Loss:  2.0 or higher
> 
> Profit factor: 3.5 or higher
> 
>  
> 
> And both would be for a limited portfolio (trading around 20 stocks
out of a pool of 50 " 75 candidates that are selected for trading
based on their performance that are collected during simulated trading)
> 
>  
> 
> -----Original Message-----
> From: phsst [mailto:phsst@x...] 
> Sent: Wednesday, April 09, 2003 11:28 PM
> To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: [amibroker] Re: Larry Williams Inner Circle Review
> 
>  
> 
> Dale,
> 
> I knew from previous posts that I had read that you were an excellent
> software developer. And the .gif file you posted demonstrates that.
> 
> But you did not answer my question.
> 
> > what do you consider 1) Good trading system
> > results, and 2) Excellent trading system results. And do you prefer
> > limited portfolio trading or 'whole mkt' portfolios?
> 
> If you think the results I posted were unremarkable then you must have
> had some point of reference... eh?
> 
> Phsst
> 
> 
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "dingo" <dingo@xxxx> wrote:
> > Good trading system results?  I’m still working on that. 
I’ve
> attached a gif of my latest project â€" a portfolio test bed that
will
> allow me to test a variety of formula on a series of portfolios under
> different rules.  I’m particularly interested in trying to
see if I
> can get a formula to detect when stocks come into a tradable zone and
> when/if it does begin trading it until the formula detects that the
> results are falling off.
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > d
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: phsst [mailto:phsst@x...] 
> > Sent: Wednesday, April 09, 2003 10:58 PM
> > To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: [amibroker] Re: Larry Williams Inner Circle Review
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > Dale,
> > 
> > No offense taken. In fact your observation that the trading system
> > results I posted were 'unremarkable' is the conclusion I came to when
> > nobody responded. That is why I made the 'patsy at the poker table'
> > remark.
> > 
> > <Could you expand on how you interpreted them to be the results of a
> > 'good trading system'?>
> > 
> > Because I've traded this particular system profitably. Just that
simple.
> > 
> > No kidding... my purpose in posting my trading system results was to
> > try to get others to provide some insight into what can be achieved in
> > trading system development with Amibroker where it concerns superior
> > backtesting results. (It was NOT my intention to brag about my own
> > systems!).
> > 
> > So Dale, now a question for you... in Amibroker terms, give us some
> > point of reference to what you consider 1) Good trading system
> > results, and 2) Excellent trading system results. And do you prefer
> > limited portfolio trading or 'whole mkt' portfolios?
> > 
> > No need to divulge details of proprietary trading systems. Just give
> > us an idea of what can be achieved with Amibroker in real life.
> > 
> > Phsst
> > 
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "dingo" <dingo@xxxx> wrote:
> > > Regarding your reference to your ¡Èbest trading system
results¡É:
> > > 
> > > 
> > > 
> > > No offense intended but at the time you posted the results I
looked at
> > > them and found them to be quite unremarkable and don¡Çt
> understand your
> > > characterization of them.  Could you expand on how you interpreted
> them
> > > to be the results of a ¡Ègood trading system¡É?
> > > 
> > > 
> > > 
> > > Thanks!
> > > 
> > > 
> > > 
> > > d
> > > 
> > > 
> > > 
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: phsst [mailto:phsst@x...]
> > > Sent: Tuesday, April 08, 2003 11:50 PM
> > > To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Subject: [amibroker] Re: Larry Williams Inner Circle Review
> > > 
> > > 
> > > 
> > > Yuki,
> > > 
> > > Glad to see you back from your vacation, and I hope the portion of
> > > your vacation exclusive of Larry Williams was enjoyable.
> > > 
> > > Over the years, I've been to two or three 'guru' seminars, and like
> > > you, I've generally been disappointed in the quality of the
> > > presentations, not to mention the presentors.
> > > 
> > > Frankly, until I started watching the AmiBroker board, the
single best
> > > published work I had read was Linda Rasche's 'Street Smarts' book.
> > > Linda did not hold much back and did not let her ego get involved in
> > > the presentation at all. Her presentation primarily focused upon
> > > futures, while I tend to focus upon stocks. But her approach worked
> > > well in any trading environment.
> > > 
> > > I thought I had developed a few good trading systems before getting
> > > involved in this AmiBroker board. And when I recently posted my best
> > > trading system results, there wasn't much feedback from others
> > > regarding comparable results.
> > > 
> > > Then I concluded that like the old Poker Player axiom... if you
don't
> > > know who the 'patsy' is at the table, then it is probably you!
> > > 
> > > So I'll probably hold my cards a little closer to my chest for a
while
> > > until I get the 'feel of the game'.
> > > 
> > > Anyway, glad you are back.
> > > 
> > > Phsst
> > > 
> > > 
> > > 
> > > 
> > > 
> > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Yuki Taga <yukitaga@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > Hi DT,
> > > >
> > > > Tuesday, April 8, 2003, 3:38:59 PM, you wrote:
> > > >
> > > > DT> Yuki, Read
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/message/10072
> > > > DT> to see the  basic info for L. Williams well known
indicator. Who
> > > > DT> could imagine to put his name in ANY T/A link reproducing
> > > > DT> Stochastic ?
> > > >
> > > > Sad, and surprising, but he did come off a bit like a glory
> seeker to
> > > > me, so I guess I'm not all that surprised.  He seemed to want to
> > > > claim a lot of original TA stuff, and that other people copied
him a
> > > > lot.
> > > >
> > > > Quite frankly, I was surprised with his treatment on some
> things.  He
> > > > likes ADX a lot, but he seemed to not really understand how it
works
> > > > to me.  He calls it a "trend integrity" indicator, and advises
that
> > > > when it makes extreme highs and then declines, the decline is
> showing
> > > > you that there is no "integrity" in the embryonic new trend, and
> that
> > > > it is bound to fail.  Actually, this is quite wrong IMO, as the
> > > > reversal in ADX at trend change is simply a "bleeding off", if you
> > > > will, of the high level of trending that HAD been present.  It
is a
> > > > symptom of the old trend, not yet referencing the new direction at
> > > > all.  After a while, if ADX does not stop falling and start
> rising of
> > > > course, then the new direction is certainly suspect. But, that
> is not
> > > > what Larry was talking about. He was talking simply about the
> initial
> > > > fall in ADX from a high level, and that this fact makes a new
> > > > direction suspect.  That is not correct, IMO.
> > > >
> > > > It is only sometime later that the failure of ADX to stop
> falling and
> > > > start rising with the new trend, that the new trend becomes
suspect
> > > > (and of course *all* new trends, especially reversals coming
out of
> > > > strong trending periods, are initially quite suspect). But a new
> > > > embryonic trend is not suspect simply because ADX is bleeding off
> > > > levels reached due completely to the strength of the old trend.  A
> > > > declining ADX is perhaps useful only to tell you to STAY OUT of a
> > > > trade, IMO. Where the ADX is most useful to me is when it just
> > > > crosses or just about crosses into strong trending territory -- on
> > > > its way up -- signalling that there may be a train departing
> that you
> > > > want to get on.
> > > >
> > > > Maybe I'm splitting hairs here, but I really thought he was
> trying to
> > > > be a bit too "original" here.
> > > >
> > > > Best,
> > > >
> > > > Yuki
> > > >
> > > > mailto:yukitaga@x...
> > > 
> > > 
> > > 
> > > 
> > > 
> > > 
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