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Hi Richard,
Thursday, February 20, 2003, 11:26:39 AM, you wrote:
RH> A "Mania" is an irrational emotional high. Followed by an
RH> irrational emotional low. Call it a depression.
RH> You neatly labeled the high, 95-99. You suggest loss of 70-90
RH> percent will flag the low.
RH> Just as the Mania suggests a high, an emotional low can also
RH> suggest the bottom. As judged by your 70-90 percent, or by fear
RH> in the market, we've got a way to go.
RH> The market is far from fear. In fact generally optimistic at
RH> this time.
RH> Care to place the bottom? 8->
Not this girl. ^^_^^ But generally speaking they are very long,
drawn out affairs (first part implodes pretty quickly, but then there
are numerous, almost countless, failed rallies, finally scraping
along "the bottom" for some time). When almost the last person stops
looking for the bottom, that's probably the time to keep your eyes
open.
Simplistic, I know. But it's a pattern that seems to repeat time and
time again.
I'd never in a million years try to call it though. Let's say I'm
right about 70-90 percent. If the bottom is 90 but you buy at 70 on
my call, you lose 2/3, or thereabouts. ^_- There is just no way to
know, anyway. But based on *time*, as well as price, if Saddam
Hussein or Kim Jong Il tortured me into making a prediction, I'd say
we are not there yet. And both those guys seem to be working
overtime to make sure I'm right. ^^_^^
Best,
Yuki
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