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Hi Yuki;
A "Mania" is an irrational emotional high.
Followed by an irrational emotional low. Call it a
depression.
You neatly labeled the high, 95-99. You
suggest loss of 70-90 percent will flag the low.
Just as the Mania suggests a high, an
emotional low can also suggest the bottom. As judged by your 70-90
percent, or by fear in the market, we've got a way to go.
The market is far from fear. In fact
generally optimistic at this time.
Care to place the bottom? 8->
Richard
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Yuki
Taga
To: <A title=amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Fred <fctonetti@xxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, February 19, 2003 1:44
PM
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: The
transcendental use of Data: An application
Hi Fred,Wednesday, February 19, 2003, 11:10:42 PM,
you wrote:Ffyc> I am curious as to what others think about this
?Ffyc> Yuki ? Dingo ? Herman ? Jayson ? Grahm ? Others ?I'm
inclined to agree with DT. The period 95 to 99 was a mania.
Itwas not unlike the Dutch tulip mania, or other historical manias.
Itreminded me at the time of the gold market in 79 and 80.History
suggests that when these manias implode, two things happen:1) a staggering
amount of manic value disappears -- 70 to 90 percent,and 2) the mania
doesn't return for a generation (usually defined as30 years), or longer,
and people expecting it to return "after awhile" are repeatedly tricked
and disappointed.About optimization or back test periods I would
suggest this:Don't expect any realistically tradable system to work on
allvehicles in all time frames -- things change. Expecting
otherwisequalifies one as an archbishop in the cult of Holy Grailism.
^^_^^I play a weighted average game, myself. That is, I give the
recentpast much more consideration than the distant past. One of
mysmallest worries in the world right now is that I will get caught
outor caught short in "the next great bull market". There will be
niceruns. There were nice runs in the 1930s. There will probably be
anice run sometime this year. Maybe in both directions.
^_^Right now, I suspect that anything that worked well in the past
2year period is likely to work for some time to come. When there is
asea change in the market environment, it probably won't work as
well.I'll adapt. Or die.
^_-Best,Yukimailto:yukitaga@xxxxxxxxxxxxxPost
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