|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Hi Fred,
Wednesday, February 19, 2003, 11:10:42 PM, you wrote:
Ffyc> I am curious as to what others think about this ?
Ffyc> Yuki ? Dingo ? Herman ? Jayson ? Grahm ? Others ?
I'm inclined to agree with DT. The period 95 to 99 was a mania. It
was not unlike the Dutch tulip mania, or other historical manias. It
reminded me at the time of the gold market in 79 and 80.
History suggests that when these manias implode, two things happen:
1) a staggering amount of manic value disappears -- 70 to 90 percent,
and 2) the mania doesn't return for a generation (usually defined as
30 years), or longer, and people expecting it to return "after a
while" are repeatedly tricked and disappointed.
About optimization or back test periods I would suggest this:
Don't expect any realistically tradable system to work on all
vehicles in all time frames -- things change. Expecting otherwise
qualifies one as an archbishop in the cult of Holy Grailism. ^^_^^
I play a weighted average game, myself. That is, I give the recent
past much more consideration than the distant past. One of my
smallest worries in the world right now is that I will get caught out
or caught short in "the next great bull market". There will be nice
runs. There were nice runs in the 1930s. There will probably be a
nice run sometime this year. Maybe in both directions. ^_^
Right now, I suspect that anything that worked well in the past 2
year period is likely to work for some time to come. When there is a
sea change in the market environment, it probably won't work as well.
I'll adapt. Or die. ^_-
Best,
Yuki
mailto:yukitaga@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Post AmiQuote-related messages ONLY to: amiquote@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
(Web page: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amiquote/messages/)
Check group FAQ at: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/files/groupfaq.html
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
|